Real Madrid vs Braga Odds
| Real Madrid Odds | -450 |
| Braga Odds | +1200 |
| Draw | +550 |
| Over / Under | 3.5 -110 / -110 |
Braga look to avenge their 2-1 loss in Portugal when they head to the Bernabeau to take on Real Madrid.
Real Madrid are in great form at the moment, sitting atop the La Liga table, as well as earning three wins from their first three Champions League matches. Jude Bellingham is the hottest player on the planet right now, scoring 10 goals so far this season, but there is a question as to whether he will play in this match after suffering a dislocated shoulder this weekend.
Braga put in an admirable performance in that last match against Real Madrid, but still sit in third place in the group. They've been in good form domestically, winning four of their last five matches, including scoring six goals this weekend against Portimonense.
Here is my Real Madrid vs Braga prediction and preview.
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Real Madrid
Real Madrid are an incredibly interesting team because of how good they have run this season, largely because of Bellingham. He has been their main offensive threat, playing as a box invading striker, and it's worked. Bellingham has scored 13 goals from 6.6 expected. He won't keep up this kind of scoring rate forever and when the goals do dry up, what does that mean for Real Madrid?
If he doesn't play in this match, then the formation is likely going to change. Real Madrid have been playing a 4-3-1-2, with Rodrygo and Vinicius Jr. up top, but now I'd imagine it will be Joselu up top in their normal 4-3-3. In the first match against Braga, Real Madrid didn't really create a lot of high quality chances. The ones they did create were because Braga were playing a dangerous high line.
When Braga were in settled defense, Real Madrid largely were ineffective in breaking them down. For the match, Real Madrid only created 0.9 xG on 13 shots despite having 20 box entries.
The out of possession stuff from Real Madrid was pretty concerning as well against Braga. Carlo Ancelotti favors defensive structure over Real Madrid being an intense high pressing team. Real Madrid are 17th in PPDA in La Liga and the goal Braga scored is a perfect encapsulation of how they can be exposed in their defensive block.
The Madrid born Álvaro Djaló gives Braga a lifeline! 🌶 pic.twitter.com/7uyzJAT6L9
— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) October 24, 2023
Braga
You could make the argument that Braga were the better team in the first leg in Portugal, as they won the xG battle 1.5 to 0.9. Their tactical plan was aggressive, but their style of play works perfectly against a passive team like Real Madrid.
Braga play out of a 4-4-2, building out of the back and largely relying on long sustained possession when they face low defensive blocks. The way they create chances is by circulating the ball from side to side. Braga have completed the most crosses of anyone in Portugal into the penalty area. That style worked well against a passive team like Real Madrid, who have struggled to defend crosses in Spain this season.
It was also an interesting choice from Artur Jorge to leave two of his best attacking players, Bruma and Abel Ruiz, on the bench to start the match. They came on just after the hour mark and had a big impact in Braga getting the ball into the back of the net. Both of them have over a 0.35 xG + xA per 90 minute rate in Portugal this season and Bruma in particular is a very dangerous player in wide areas when Real Madrid are narrow out of possession.
Out of possession, Braga were playing a very dangerous high line and got burned repeatedly by Vinicius Jr. The reason for that was because they fell behind in the 15th minute of the match. I'd imagine Jorge will be a little bit more conservative on the road in this match, which ultimately gives Braga a better chance at conceding goals in transition.
Real Madrid vs Braga
Prediction
When we have these reverse fixtures changing locations we have to ask ourselves, what is going to change tactically and how much has the market moved based on those results? Home field advantage in the Champions League is worth around 35 cents, so flipping the location means the line should shift 70 cents the other way.
Real Madrid closed as a -250 favorite on the road in Portugal, so the line should be in the range of -320. Instead, the market upgraded Real Madrid after the win despite not even being able to eclipse 1 xG in Portugal.
Even if Bellingham plays, this line is too high for Real Madrid and their passive defensive block, which will allow Braga to do what they do best, circulate the ball from side to side and create chances via crosses.
So, I like the value on Braga's spread of +2 at -127.
