Real Madrid vs Stuttgart Odds
| Real Madrid Odds | -350 |
| Stuttgart Odds | +800 |
| Draw | +500 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -250 / +200 |
Real Madrid open up their title defense at the Santiago Bernabéu when they host Stuttgart.
Things have not gone as swimmingly as they should be going for Real Madrid this season in La Liga. They have drawn two of their first five matches, which is a big disappointment. This is supposed to be the new Galaticos with Kylian Mbappe joining an already incredible squad, so they will want to get their Champions League campaign off on the right foot on Tuesday.
Stuttgart had a historic season in 2023-24, finishing in third place in the Bundesliga to get back to the Champions League for the first time in 14 years. They had to replace a lot of key players from last years team and the beginning of the Bundesliga season has not gone well for them. So, getting at type of result in this match would be a massive achievement.
Let's get into this Real Madrid vs StuttgartChampions League match.
Real Madrid
Real Madrid are an incredibly dangerous team, not because they have some revolutionary tactics, but because they possess more individual quality that any team in the world. Carlo Ancelotti is the perfect manager for this type of team because he sets them up perfectly to take advantage of that individual quality.
They use a ton of different build up structures depending on the opponent they are facing. If they face a team that likes to press high like Stuttgart, they will look to play more direct with long balls up the forwards who are in 1 v 1 situations with the opposing defender with Bellingham and Valverde making late runs behind the defense to create an opportunity. If they face a team that is passive, they will often times use combination passing to open up the space and because of their individual quality they are more likely to overperfrom their underlying metrics.
Out of possession, Real Madrid are not a team that really likes to press high. Instead, Ancelotti favors a more compact defensive structure where Real Madrid try to deny opponents space through the middle of the pitch. What they have drastically improved at over the years is defending in transition. Now that they have a midfield of Tchouaméni, Bellingham and Valverde, they have three of the best ball winners in the world along with a rock solid center back pairing. So far this season in La Liga they have only conceded 3.8 expected goals in five matches and last year only allowed 0.91 npxG per 90 minutes.
Stuttgart
So how did Sttugart have a meteoric rise up the Bundesliga table? Two words: Sebastian Hoeneß. Their manager has revolutionized the team and made them one of the more difficult teams to face in Germany. The reason for that is his variability in how he sets up his team.
Stuttgart use a ton of different build up formations depending on the opponent they are going to face. When they are building up from deep they are often using a 4-2-4 shape with the two forwards dropping deep to pull the opposing center backs with them to create an over the top ball to the wingers making inverted runs, which is very similar to Roberto De Zerbi's Brighton. In addition to that they are very aggressive with their passing in possession, always looking to open up the defense. Last season, nobody in the Bundesliga attempted more through balls than Stuttgart and they were third in the Bundesliga in progressive passes behind only Bayern Munich and Leverkusen.
Then the summer came and a lot of key players went out the door. The biggest loss was their start striker Serhou Guirassy, who scored 28 goals domestically last season. They did retain Deniz Undav, who tallied 18 goals, and bought Ermedin Demirović from Augsburg to help their attack from completely falling off.
The biggest losses came in defense as they lost both of their starting center backs, Waldemar Anton and Hiroki Ito. The loss of the two has been felt big time early on in the season, as they have already conceded six expected goals in their first three matches.
Real Madrid vs Stuttgart
Prediction
This is a bad situation for Stuttgart coming into this match. They are a team that is very aggressive with their high press and counter-pressing when they don't have the ball. They were successful with it last season because they had that elite center back pairing that cleaned up a lot balls over the top of their high defensive line. Now that they don't have them, they are going to continue to struggle and facing Real Madrid, who are comfortable playing direct with the individual quality they have, is a nightmare.
Although Real Madrid haven't really gotten off the mark in La Liga, they are largely facing teams who are going to just sit deep in a defensive block and try to limit them to low quality chances. That's not in the DNA of Stuttgart, so I think Real Madrid's offense should score multiple goals here.
I like the value on Real Madrid's team total over.
