Real Sociedad vs Inter Milan Odds, Picks, Predictions | Champions League Preview

Wednesday, Sep. 20

3 p.m. ET

CBS Sports Network

Real Sociedad Odds	+210
Inter Milan Odds	+140
Draw	+225
Over / Under	2.5  +110 / -138

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

After finishing runners up to Manchester City last season, Inter begin their Champions League campaign against Real Sociedad.

Real Sociedad are back in the Champions League for the first time in a decade after finishing fourth in the La Liga table. They've had a slow start to the their La Liga campaign with only one win in five matches. However, Sociedad had some of the best underlying metrics in La Liga last year, so they should be a tough matchup for Inter.

Inter are off and running in Serie A with four straight wins including a 5-1 beat down of their inner city rival AC Milan this past weekend. Simone Inzaghi has turned Inter into one of the best transition teams in the world, but even though they are flying high, should they really be a road favorite at one of the four best teams in Spain?

Let's dive into this Real Sociedad vs Inter Milan fixture.

Real Sociedad are a fascinating team and one that profiles really well as an underdog. Their showing over the weekend at Real Madrid proved just that. Even though they lost the match 2-1, the expected goals battle was even despite Sociedad allowing Madrid to tilt the field on them.

Imanol Alguacil has been the manager at Sociedad since 2018, so it's pretty clear what their tactical plan is. Real Sociedad are an intense pressing team and actually were second in La Liga in PPDA and top five at disrupting opponents' build up play.

Sociedad will typically play out of a 4-4-2 and their primary method of attack is through deep circulations meaning slowly progressing the ball up the pitch and then moving it side to side in the opponent's final third, looking for an opening.

image via analytics FC

Inter Milan are not the type of team that holds a high amount of possession and primarily looks to play in transition, so Real Sociedad may end up holding a majority of the possession in this match.

Real Sociedad have a ton of attackers that can give Inter a lot of problem. Takefuso Kubo is a tremendous young talent playing on the wing with his dribbling and passing ability. He scored nine goals and ha four assists last season, but is consistently in the 90th percentile and above for shot creating actions and progressive passes and dribbles.

Inter are an incredibly difficult team to beat because they play much different way than a lot of the top clubs in the world. Inter are primarily a transitional team looking for quick counterattacks while sitting in a 5-3-2 out of possession. They showed that in their 5-1 over AC Milan over the weekend when they sat very deep, closing off the middle of the pitch and then springing forward to counter time and time again.

I don't think there is really much of a question about if Inter are good or not, but the question is should they be a road favorite in this match.

By UEFA coefficients and total league transfer value, Spain is a slight notch above Italy at the moment even if there was an Italian team in the final of all three UEFA competitions. Inter had a +0.83 xGD per 90 minutes in  Serie A last season, as their defense allowed under 1.00 xG per 90 minutes. Compare that to Real Sociedad, who had a +0.55 xGD in La Liga. The gap between these teams, accounting for home field advantage, is basically even.

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This is all about price point. Inter are the better side between these two, but when you account for home field advantage and league strength, this match really should be close to a pick 'em.

Real Sociedad have shown an ability to punch above their weight, getting wins over Manchester United and Real Madrid last season and putting in a great showing on the road against Real Madrid this past weekend.

I actually have Real Sociedad projected as a slight home favorite, so I like the value on them draw no bet at +120.

Pick: Real Sociedad – Draw No Bet (+120 via Caesars)