The line here at the Action Network is that we stay away from feelings, all of the stuff and none of the fluff. If you want to bet with your heart, then don't come here.
The United States is not the smart bet to make tomorrow.
Iran manhandled Wales and while the U.S. managed a draw against Gareth Bale's squad, they did nothing that was particularly impressive.
The sportsbooks have been cleaning up on U.S. moneyline and future bets. Loads of people going with their heart and hoping to make money at the same time.
For tomorrow's match, the U.S. is +100 and Iran is +290 and books like BetMGM can't even give Iran away. There are 82% of the tickets and 85% of the handle on the Americans.
So am I going to tell you to bet Iran? I am not.
But I am going to tell you to take the over on 2.5 goals at +120.
I know what you are thinking. Out of the 20 games played so far, how many have hit that over? True, only 30% have (six of 20), but with the urgency of this match, both teams are going to take more chances, which will create more of an open field and more scoring opportunities.
Because of the situation — Iran advances with a draw and the USMNT need a win — the public narrative for this match is that it will be a low-event rock fight. Iran will sit deep and dare the Yanks to beat them 1-0.
But that narrative overlooks the fact that one goal by either side completely changes the complexion of this contest. If Iran scores, the U.S. needs two goals and will go all-out.
If USA scores first, the Lions of Persia will need to come out of their shell and launch forward to get a draw.
So go to BetMGM and take OVER 2.5 goals and get better odds than an American win.
