Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Wolfsburg Odds
| Eintracht Frankfurt Odds | +140 |
| Wolfsburg Odds | +190 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-148 / +120) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds as of Friday afternoon via DraftKings. | |
Two of the Bundesliga's top-four teams square off Saturday, with Eintracht Frankfurt hosting Wolfsburg in a crucial match.
Since the second half of the season began, both clubs have charged up the table and the winner of this game could be all but a lock to make next season's Champions League with six fixtures to go following this showdown.
Let's take a look at this game and see what might be in store.
Eintracht Frankfurt
The Eagles came through with a late winner against Borussia Dortmund on Saturday, extending their lead for the final Champions League spot to seven points over the Black and Yellows.
Since the second round of fixtures began after Jan. 22, only Bayern Munich and Wolfsburg have taken more points than Frankfurt. Andre Silva is a breakout star with 22 league goals, with the second most behind Robert Lewandowski.
However, this Frankfurt team's underlying numbers aren't all that impressive when you look under the hood, though.
The Eagles are eighth in the Bundesliga in shots per 90 minutes, plus they're third in expected goals per shot. Frankfurt is allowing the eighth-most passes into the penalty area and don't do a great job at stopping crosses from coming into the box either.
Frankfurt's top-line xG numbers rank seventh in the league, and it's sixth in my Bundesliga power rating as well. The club has run really hot as of late, taking seven points from its last nine available against RB Leipzig, Dortmund and Union Berlin, despite losing on XG in all three matches.
Wolfsburg
While every main league in Europe is seeing less pressing, more passes per defensive action and less running from players due to the fixture pile-up from COVID-19 protocols, Wolfsburg is actually pressing more. The Wolves are third in tackles per 90 minutes defensively and second in interceptions. Last year, Wolfsburg was fourth and eighth in those statistics, respectively.
The increased pressure defensively is a change in tactic, but it's not a change in result. Wolfsburg has allowed the fewest goals in the league, and its third in fewest expected goals. In my power ratings, the Wolves are fourth because their defense has been consistently solid defensively for a few seasons.
The reason Wolfsburg is higher up the table is its attack, which has improved because of its pressing intensity. The Wolves been able to win the ball more higher up the pitch, capitalizing more quickly with chances and goals. While Frankfurt creates the highest shots per 90 from inside the six-yard box, Wolfsburg's defense doesn't allow many big scoring chances.
Wolfsburg allows the third-fewest key passes and fifth-fewest passes into the final third of the pitch. It also allows the second-lowest xG per shot ,and it will be difficult for Frankfurt to create the high-quality chances it relies on.
Betting Analysis & Pick
I played Frankfurt last week because of its ability to hit Dortmund on the counter, thus exposing its weaknesses in transition defense. However, Frankfurt's luck has to run out at some point.
This is the weekend that the more-solid Wolfsburg team ends Frankfurt's recent run of form, thus all but securing a top-three Bundesliga finish.
My numbers make these teams even, so I'll take Wolfsburg via the Draw No Bet line at plus money as my top pick.
Pick: Wolfsburg — Draw No Bet (+110 or better)
