Euro 2024 continues on Saturday, June 29 as we enter the knockout stage.
Like World Cup 2022, I'll have projections for every game, along with analysis and any potential bets that result from showing projection value.
My projections simulate each game 250,000 times and are powered by my colleague BJ Cunningham's offensive and defensive power ratings for each team. Using his power ratings, I use something called diagonal-inflated bivariate poisson to simulate the scoring distribution for each game.
Let’s dive into my Euro 2024 match projections for Wednesday's Switzerland – Italy game and more.
Saturday Euro 2024 Projections
Switzerland – Italy, 12 p.m. ET
Italy are 38.6% to win in regulation and 44.6% to win prior to a penalty shootout. I have it at 18.9% that this game goes to penalties, with Italy generally favored at 54.1%.
The Swiss have played three strong games, while Italy struggled to create much against a top level team like Spain. The Italians may be closer to the Swiss' level than the Spaniards, and as such I show value on Switzerland.
Pick: Switzerland to Advance (+120 via FanDuel)
Germany – Denmark, 3 p.m. ET
Germany are 55.6% to win in regulation and 63.1% favorites to win prior to a possible penalty shootout. There's a 17.7% chance this game gets to penalties, with Germany favored to advance at 72%.
The simulations have this as a low-scoring affair with value on a super-low scoring game.
