Brighton vs. Newcastle Odds
| Brighton Odds | -150 |
| Newcastle Odds | +560 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (+130/ -162) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 4 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds as of Friday afternoon and via DraftKings. | |
There is only one Premier League match Saturday, but it offers plenty of drama. Brighton & Hove Albion and Newcastle United are both fighting for their lives, in terms of remaining in the top flight next season.
Here's a closer look at the two clubs, followed by a selection.
Brighton
Brighton entered the weekend in 16th place with 29 points, putting the club just three points ahead of 18th-place Fulham with a game in hand.
It's been well documented by now, but the Seagulls have been one of the big stories of this season in England's top flight, due to their underperformance compared to the underlying numbers.
In terms of expected-goal differential, Brighton is the fifth-best team in the league at +11.2 xGDiff, just barely behind Manchester United at +11.5 xGDiff (according to FBRef.com). And yet, the Red Devils are in second place and the Seagulls are in 16th place in the standings.
In part because of those underlying numbers, the chances of Brighton being relegated is still pretty low — seven percent, according to FiveThirtyEight. However, the pressure is still very much on with 10 league games left to play.
Brighton snapped a three-game losing streak and a six-match winless streak in all competitions last Sunday, earning a 2-1 road victory at Southampton. Ironically, it was a game in which the Seagulls lost the xG battle, albeit barely, by a 1.0-0.9 xG margin.
The underperformance has happened at both ends of the field for Brighton. The Seagulls have scored just 29 goals, despite an xG total of 39.5. And they've conceded 36 goals, although they have an xGA total of only 28.4 on the season.
Newcastle
The Magpies entered the weekend in 17th place with 28 points, parked a single point behind the Seagulls and two points ahead of Fulham, also with a game in hand on the latter.
However, Newcastle isn't nearly as good as Brighton in terms of the underlying numbers. The Magpies are 16th in the league in xGDiff (-12.4), which is not quite relegation worthy, but not far off.
Unfortunately, two of the four teams below Newcastle in that category — Crystal Palace and Burnley — are significantly ahead of it in the table, positioned nine and five points in front of the club, respectively.
Fulham's form and underlying numbers are better, too. Hence, FiveThirtyEight currently has Newcastle as the most-likely team to be relegated (along with Sheffield United and West Bromwich Albion) at 45 percent, just ahead of Fulham at 41 percent.
Newcastle is winless in its past five matches, although it's coming off three draws in a row: a 1-1 tie against Aston Villa last Friday, which was preceded by a 0-0 stalemate at West Brom and a 1-1 tie against Wolves.
The Magpies have scored one fewer goal than Brighton (28), but have conceded nine more (45) this season. And they've sorely missed Callum Wilson and Miguel Almiron of late, among other injured players.
Wilson (10 goals, five assists) and Almiron (four goals, one assist) have scored 14 of their 28 league goals, with no other Newcastle player scoring more than two goals. Wilson is still out, but there's a chance Almiron could return.
🎙 Steve Bruce speaks to the media ahead of #BHANEW.
"We still think the international break is the right time for Callum Wilson. He's well into his rehabilitation and the same goes for Miguel Almirón. We'll see how he is. Miguel's got a chance [for tomorrow] – we'll see." pic.twitter.com/WmLkEPGTx0
— Newcastle United FC (@NUFC) March 19, 2021
Betting Analysis & Pick
Brighton won the first meeting at Newcastle, picking up a 3-0 victory. However, that was way back in September. One of the goals came via a penalty kick, and Brighton's xG total was just 1.6, including the penalty.
Of more interest is the fact the Magpies had just six shots, with none of them on target, for an 0.5 xG total. That was also with Wilson in the lineup.
It's no coincidence Newcastle's current five-match winless streak has come since Wilson's injury. The Magpies have scored just three goals in those five matches combined — one by Allan Saint-Maximin, who's now out, and two by center back Jamaal Lascelles.
I like Brighton's chances of winning this match, and I like the angle of it staying under 2.5 goals, but I don't enjoy paying around -150 for either of those options. Instead, I'm turning to the team totals. I'll back Brighton for clean sheet at even money as my top pick.
Pick: Newcastle Under 0.5 Goals (+100)
