Things are starting to heat up in the Premier League this weekend with a heavyweight showdown in northwest England between Manchester City and Arsenal on the slate.
Read on for my Saturday Premier League picks, featuring West Ham vs. Chelsea, Leicester vs. Everton, and Brighton vs. Nottingham Forest
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Saturday Premier League Picks, Premier League Predictions
BJ Cunningham's Premier League Picks
West Ham have been one of the worst defensive teams in the Premier League this season. The switch from David Moyes to Lopetegui has improved their defense in the slightest. In their last match against Fulham, they allowed them to take 21 shots and create 1.5 expected goals, with the biggest chance coming off a cross. That was a big problem for West Ham last season, as they allowed the fifth-most crosses into their penalty area.
The reason for that is because they do not have good fullbacks defending in 1 v 1 situations, as the Hammers allowed the second-most carries into their penalty area, behind only Sheffield United last season. With Neto and Madueke, Chelsea have two of the most successful 1 v 1 dribblers in the Premier League, so they should be able to have a monster day creating chances from out wide.
The other problem with West Ham is they are transitioning from an extremely direct team to one that now tries to play out of the back. You’ve already seen them turn the ball over countless times in their own final third, which has led to easy chances for their opponents. Through four matches they have allowed 72 high recoveries in their own final third, which is the most in the Premier League. Chelsea are a very aggressive high pressing team that has double digit high recoveries in three of their four matches.
Finally, Chelsea played West Ham towards the end of last season, hammering them 5-0 and creating 4.1 expected goals in the process. I have Chelsea projected for 2.03 goals in this match, so I like the value on their team total over.
Pick: Chelsea Team Total Over 1.5 (-135 via DraftKings)
There is absolutely no reason Leicester should be a home favorite against Everton.
Nobody has been more unlucky than Everton dating back to last season. From the start of the 2023-24 season until now the Toffees scored 44 goals off of 64.5 expected goals. That is a historic level of under-performance. The defense did slightly over-perform last year and is seeing some of that negative regression into this season, as they’ve conceded 13 goals off of 8.3 expected. You can pretty much boil that down to Jordan Pickford being uncharacteristically terrible, having a -3.2 post shot xG +/- through four matches, which is not going to continue considering he’s been positive in that metric the last two seasons.
What will be interesting is what Leicester decide to do in possession. Do they decide to try and build out versus Everton’s high press or try to play more direct and win second balls? Neither option is great against Everton if you are below average at both, which Leicester are.
Everton are going to have a massive advantage in this match on set pieces. The Toffees have created the fourth-most expected goals off of them this season and have a 57% aerial duel win rate, which is third-best in the Premier League. Leicester on the other hand are only winning 42% of their aerial duels and 2.2 of the 6.6 expected goals they’ve allowed this season have come off of set pieces.
I have Everton projected as a road favorite, so I like the value on them here.
Pick: Everton – Draw No Bet (+105 via bet365)
Last Saturday was the first time that a team sat in a low defensive block against Brighton and they kind of struggled. They ended up creating 1.6 expected goals, but almost all of that came off a double rebound in the 36th minute that they should have scored. After that moment until the end of the match, Brighton ended up taking 16 shots with only one of those shots having an xG rating over 0.10. That is important because Ipswich might be one of the worst defensive teams in the Premier League, while Nottingham Forest are one of the best.
The Trees just held Liverpool to 0.9 expected goals at Anfield by staying incredibly compact and closing off the middle of the pitch. They also have been limiting their opponents to the lowest quality shots possible having the lowest xG per shot allowed so far this season.
Hurzeler is using a couple different build up structures based on the opponent he’s facing. Manchester United played a 4-2-4 mid-block against them, which is similar to what Nottingham Forest have played out of this season. Brighton will oftentimes play a back three or four with a single pivot in the midfield with two midfielders in the half space to try and give them a 3 v 2 when they beat the first line of pressure. Nottingham Forest will most likely easily counter this by simply sitting back into a 4-4-2 and are much better defensively than Manchester United.
Nuno was in charge for one of the meetings against Brighton last season and it was the lowest event match of the season. They held Brighton to just 0.4 expected goals and I think given how well they’ve defended this season will be able to do the same.
I only have Brighton projected at +104, so I like the value on Nottingham Forest +0.5 at +107.
