Saturday Soccer Odds, Expert Picks: Best Bets, Featuring Napoli vs. Torino (October 1)

Saturday is for college football, we know that, but with a full slate of soccer odds released and no football kick off until 12 p.m. ET, why not dive into the other version of football for a few wagers before noon.

Below, Nick Hennion,Brett Pund and BJ Cunningham and have identified their top bets to make, with a catch: Each game kicks off at 10 a.m. ET or earlier, meaning each will also end before a snap of college football is played.

Read on to see how our staff is playing the early morning slate of European soccer.

Our 3 Early Saturday Best Bets

Napoli vs. Torino

Hennion: If there’s a previous Serie A game to base this handicap on, it’s the Inter-Torino fixture a few weeks ago.

Torino, as a road underdog, generated zero big chances, but limited the Nerazzurri to only two big scoring chances at home. Additionally, the other fixture I’m sourcing in evaluating the Torino attack is a road fixture against Atalanta. That fixture also saw Torino create zero big scoring chances as visiting road underdogs.

Thus, I’ll be surprised if Torino contributes much to the total here, especially considering Napoli are tied for first in Serie A in terms of home expected goals (xG) against. But, I also expect the Torino defense will limit a Napoli attack that will miss talisman Victor Osimhen for this fixture.

Finally, this head-to-head has historically proven very profitable to the under. Four straight and six of the last seven have finished under 2.5 goals with these sides combining for only six big scoring chances across two legs last season.

Pick: Under 2.5 Goals 

Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Union Berlin

Cunningham: What is interesting about this match is the books know about Union Berlin’s drastic over-performance.

What I don’t believe is that a Union Berlin match against somebody other than the top four teams should have a BTTS-No line at plus money.

To reiterate, Union Berlin have scored 15 goals off of 5.7 xG. They’ve allowed four goals off of 6.7 xG. So, the defense is still really good like it was last year and the low block in their 3-5-2 system has been effective, but I want to read these offensive numbers off to everyone again:

Shots from inside the penalty area: 45 (15th in Bundesliga). Progressive Passes: 170 (16th in Bundesliga). PPDA: 16.1 (18th in Bundesliga). High Turnovers: 39 (18th in Bundesliga). Crosses completed into the penalty area: 24 (1st in Bundesliga).

Frankfurt are middle of the road offensively, scoring 14 goals off of 9.7 xG and 3.1 of their 9.7 xG came in one fluke match against RB Leipzig. So, they have essentially only created 6.6 xG in their other six matches. Additionally, Frankfurt have scored a whopping five goals off of set pieces.

Do you want to know who the best set piece defense in the Bundesliga is? That’s right, it’s Union Berlin, who are allowing only 0.05 xG per set piece.

I have the BTTS-No line projected at -125, so I like the value on the current line of +110.

Pick:Both Teams to Score – No (+110)

Southampton vs. Everton

Pund: When I look at this match between Southampton and Everton, these are two sides who do not create consistent chances offensively, which is why I’m expecting the total to fall under 2.5 goals.

The Saints come into the game in the bottom three in the Premier League in xG (6.1), according to fbref.com, while also ranking in the bottom half of the league in shots on target per match (2.86) and goals per shot (0.09). They have also played in some lower-event matches, with their league games averaging just 1.957 combined xG per match.

Meanwhile, the Toffees have also struggled offensively, ranking 16th in big scoring chances created (seven) and 18th in goals per shot (0.05) and goals scored (five). Everton’s fixtures have also averaged the lowest amount of goals in the English top-flight (1.57), while this same play has cashed in all but one match.

This isn’t good for a team that has to go on the road to play a Southampton side that has only allowed 7.6 xG on the campaign.

It likely won’t be the most exciting fixture of the slate, but this is my favorite bet for Saturday.

Pick: Under 2.5 Goals