Saturday's games will mark the halfway point of the group stages when Group C and Group D take center stage.
My projections simulate each game 250,000 times and are powered by my colleague BJ Cunningham‘s offensive and defensive power ratings for each team. Using his power ratings, I use something called diagonal-inflated bivariate poisson to simulate the scoring distribution for each game.
We had another profitable day on Friday, with the USA securing a 0-0 draw against England to push us to +1.5 units on the day. That result also moved us to +13.0 units for the World Cup so far.
Let's dive into my simulations for Saturday's FIFA World Cup games.
Friday World Cup Projections
All bets are 1 unit unless stated otherwise
Group D: Tunisia vs. Australia (5 a.m. ET)
- Tunisia are 37.3% to win according to my simulations.
- These are two of the weaker teams in the World Cup.
- That means the potential for a draw is quite high.
- Tunisia project for 1.2 goals, while Australia project for 1.0 goals.
- Best Bets: Correct Score 1-1 (+525 via BetMGM), Draw (+225 via DraftKings)
- Bet to: +510 and +210 respectively
Group C: Poland vs. Saudi Arabia (8 a.m. ET)
- Poland are 51.1% favorites to win according to my simulations.
- A small location/regional advantage was applied to Saudi Arabia.
- Books are overreacting to Saudi Arabia's defeat of Argentina.
- At the same time, they are overvaluing Poland's ability to win.
- There is a 31.7% chance of a draw per my simulations.
- Best Bet: Draw (+275 via DraftKings)
- Bet to: +240
Group D: France vs. Denmark (11 a.m. ET)
- France are 42.0% to win according to my simulations.
- Both teams have stingy defenses, and France's offense isn't as potent as it gets credit for, especially after a four-goal outburst against Australia.
- That gives value to the under.
- There's value on Denmark to win and draw, so let's combine them.
- Best Bets: Denmark +0.5 (+105 via DraftKings), Under 2.5 (-128 via FanDuel)
- Bet to: -110 and -135 respectively
Group C: Argentina vs. Mexico (2 p.m. ET)
- Argentina are 51.0% favorites to win according to my simulations.
- My simulations likely under-rate Argentina, as they had multiple goals disallowed due to offside.
- Meanwhile, Mexico underwhelmed in a 0-0 draw with Poland.
- That said, even adjusting Argentina upward, the gap between these two teams is closer than books are making, so there's still value on Mexico.
- Argentina don't have a potent offense, scoring only 27 goals in 17 qualifiers, while Mexico rate even worse offensively.
- Thus, there's value on the under.
- Best Bet: Mexico +0.5 (+155 via DraftKings), Under 2.5 (-130 via BetRivers)
- Bet to: +145 and -135 respectively
