Seattle vs. Charlotte FC
| Seattle Odds | -188 |
| Charlotte Odds | +550 |
| Draw | +290 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-130 / -112) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | FS1 | fuboTV |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Seattle looks to continue mounting a charge up the Western Conference table when it hosts Charlotte FC, which is making its first trip to the Pacific Time Zone for Sunday's Major League Soccer match.
The Sounders have won two of their last three games, but are coming off a tough 1-0 loss at Colorado. Seattle still has two matches in hand on most of its conference opposition. And it's no longer distracted by other competitions after winning the CONCACAF Champions League and exiting early in the U.S. Open Cup.
Charlotte is still looking for its first away win in its expansion season. However, the traveling performances have improved of late with a 0-0 draw in Colorado and a 2-1 loss at Orlando City. The club's 3-1 midweek loss in the U.S. Open Cup at the New York Red Bulls was closer than the score indicated.
This is the teams’ first-ever meeting. It’s Charlotte’s fourth match against Western Conference opposition and Seattle’s third against an expansion opponent in a 12-month span after facing Austin FC twice last season.
Seattle Displaying Dominant Home Form
The Sounders are playing only their fifth home game of the season after winning two of their first four matches. And there’s reason to believe the early home sample doesn’t reflect much on what is to come.
Manager Brian Schmetzer fielded most of his available first-choice lineup in a 1-0 defeat to Nashville SC on opening weekend. However, it was clearly a fatigued group after starting the season in the Champions League Round of 16 part of the competition.
And it was mostly reserves who played in a 1-0 defeat to Inter Miami three days after its semifinal triumph over New York City FC in April.
If you add Seattle’s CCL matches to the schedule, its home form becomes more impressive. It includes six wins in eight total games, with five of them coming via multiple goals. All but one of those victories came against teams from MLS or Liga MX, which is Mexico’s first division.
Aside from what was likely a season-ending ACL tear for Joao Paulo in the second leg of their Champions League final triumph over Pumas UNAM, the Sounders are as healthy as they’ve been all season.
No other names are on the injury report for a club that has won two MLS Cups and reached four MLS Cup finals since the 2016 season.
Charlotte Not Playing Like Expansion Side
Charlotte FC has exceeded expectations in its first year under manage Miguel Angel Ramirez, largely in part because of its home performances and its refusal to settle for one point.
With a record of 5-7-1 (W-L-D), the club entered the weekend seventh in the Eastern Conference standings exactly because it avoided draws despite its losing record. Yet, on the road that aggressiveness has sometimes been turned against them.
Two of Charlotte's five away defeats have come by multiple goals, plus its loss at Orlando City would have if not for a fortuitous late penalty. The side has also been deserving of its away defeats. Charlotte's -3.1 xG difference on the road is 10th in the conference. And it has trailed opponents in xG created in all of its away defeats.
They’ll also be without some key personnel here. Although he’s not listed on the official team injury report, leading scorer Karol Swiderski has reportedly departed for duty with the Polish national team. Winger Yordy Reyna is also out, plus defenders Christian Makoun and Harrison Afful are listed as questionable but expected to play.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Charlotte's first away win is coming soon. Just probably not in Seattle.
The four-day turnaround from Open Cup play, combined with a second consecutive away game and a roster that lacks depth is a lot to overcome. Throw in an opponent on full rest with arguably the league's deepest roster and three points just aren't easy to imagine.
The odds would probably be more overwhelming in Seattle's favor if its price wasn't depressed slightly by their early "struggles." That word is in quotes because it was very clear the Sounders were primarily focused on continental competition early in the season.
This game has the makings of one of those trademark Seattle routs at home, where it takes a lead and then devastates teams on the counterattack. And my original lean was toward the Asian Handicap line of Seattle -1.5 goals at +140 odds and an implied 41.7% probability.
However, the nature of expansion seasons are different, in that teams are more likely to be motivated by outcomes beyond wins and points. Ramirez might have stated to the press he’ll be looking for all three points. Yet, a relatively meaningless late goal in a 2-1 Seattle win is going to be much more important for Charlotte than for a more-established club that isn't still laying its own foundation.
So instead of the Asian Handicap betting angle, I'm playing one of the only wagers I could find that has actually paid out more often than the odds would suggest.
Charlotte has played a bit higher scoring road matches. Seattle has played higher scoring games in the home affairs they've won. So, the Single Game Parlay pairing the host on the moneyline with the total clearing 2.5 goals is my top pick at +135 odds and an implied 42.6% probability.
It’s a wager that has paid on six of 10 occasions between Seattle home matches and Charlotte away games in MLS play.
Pick: Single Game Parlay — Seattle ML & Total Over 2.5 Goals (+135)
