Serbia are back at the Euros after missing out in 2021, but they are coming off a pretty poor qualifying campaign that saw them finish second behind Hungary.
The Serbians are going to be one of the most fun teams to watch at this tournament because their matches are going to be incredibly high event. Their prospects for getting to the knockout stage aren't bad in this group, but their defense is going to have to improve if they want to have any hope of making a deep run in this tournament, even if they have a pair of uber-talented strikers.
Here is my Serbia Euro 2024 preview.
Tactical Analysis
Serbia’s style of play has not changed since the World Cup. Dragan Stojkovic is still in charge which means they are still playing something I like to call “chaos ball”.
In possession it’s all about utilizing the strengths of their squad. The ultimate goal is get the ball out wide, trying to set up passing triangles, or a 4 v 3 overload and sending in a cross to their two big tall strikers, Aleksander Mitrovic and Dusan Vlahovic. They finished qualifying with the second-most accurate crosses and the third-best cross completion rate, but the problem is it didn’t translate to enough high quality chances. They averaged 1.51 xG per 90 minutes in a really easy group, which is 15th among teams in the Euro field.
They will build out of the back at time,s although they predominantly like to play long balls and switch balls to attack the defense, where they are weakest. When they do build out of the back, it’s predominantly in a 3-2-5 shape with the last line of five pushing up as far as possible, so they are able to play those long balls with success.
The problem with playing this way is when you face a good box defending team or a team that defends well in the air you are stuck, which is what happened at the World Cup.
Their generic defensive numbers won’t tell you this, but Serbia are one of the worst defensive teams in this Euro field.
They smothered Lithuania and Bulgaria in their group, but when it came time to face Montenegro and Hungary, they were continually getting opened up in transition. Serbia allowed the second-most counterattack shots per 90 minutes of the teams in the Euro field and it largely has to do with their inefficiency when it comes to counter-pressing. They can’t close down the ball well enough so teams make two passes and are in a 2 v 2 situation.
When Serbia do lose the ball or when the opponent is trying to build out of the back, they are going to press and they are going to press relentlessly. The problem with doing that is they don’t have elite pressers or ball stoppers in the middle of the pitch and their three man back line is below average as well. So, once teams break the first line of the pressure, it’s open season with numbers running at Serbia’s back line.
Their other problem is if you are constantly trying to get overloads in wide areas you are leaving yourself exposed in the middle of the pitch when you do lose the ball, which every team in their group took advantage of.
data via WyScout
Final Verdict
Serbia are the ultimate variance team at this tournament. If everything goes right, they could go all the way to the semifinals with their offense, but if things go like they did at the World Cup, it could be a complete disaster and they will finish at the bottom of this group.
You can make an argument that they should be priced above Denmark in this group, but their defense, especially defending in transition, is what is holding them back. When they get into specific matchups against teams that struggle defending crosses, they will thrive. If they don't, they will struggle offensively. It's as simple as that.
In my opinion, I think Serbia are priced fairly across the board, so I am passing on any futures involving them.
Final Verdict: Pass
