Sunday Serie A Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Lazio vs. Juventus (Nov. 8)

Lazio vs. Juventus Odds

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Lazio welcome Cristiano Ronaldo and defending champion Juventus to Stadio Olimpico early Sunday for their Serie A match.

This is a marquee showdown should be competitive and exciting.

The biggest variable of this game is whether Lazio standout Ciro Immobile will suit up for this fixture. All things point to him missing the game, which would be a big blow for Lazio.

Let's take a look at these clubs and what's in store:

Lazio

Lazio has had a bit of a strange start to its season, repeatedly dealing with COVID-19 issues, and the question marks surrounding Immobile.

The Lazio star scored a league-leading 36 goals in Serie A last season. His xG were still 28.11, which was second to Ronaldo. Immobile has been missing recently due to his positive COVID-19 test, which leads me to expect him to miss this contest as well.

Lazio has picked up two draws in the Champions League and two wins in Serie A over its last four matches. Those results are actually pretty impressive, especially the UCL draws. Lazio was down 11 players in those stalemates, but managed to grab a point in each match.

However, this is a different level of opponent however in Juventus, who have been in good form as of late. I think Lazio is  a vastly different side without Immobile, which leads me to believe it will be a tough day for the host.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Last season, Lazio finished fourth in the table, generating 1.78 xG/game and conceded 1.38 xGA/game. That xG tally would drop by 0.37/game if we excluded penalties.

I wouldn't fully do that, but it's a fact Immobile took a lot of penalties last season. Because of that, I expected Lazio to regress a bit this season. Things look to be more competitive in Serie A, especially with Napoli and AC Milan showing improvement.

Through six matches, Lazio is generating 1.44 xG/game and conceding 1.60 per game. These numbers will likely improve when it gets its full squad back. However, that hasn't happened yet, and I think Lazio struggles in this match.

Juventus

I won't dance around the fact I like Juventus in this spot.

Part of that is due to the Immobile news, with the other reason due to how the club has looked since Ronaldo has returned to the starting XI. Juventus earned a 4-1 win against Spezia, who held an xG margin of 2.88-0.55 in the match.

Ronaldo and company also won their most recent UCL fixture, beating Ferencváros via a 4-1 result. Juventus manager Andrea Pirlo might still be trying to figure out his best XI, which is somewhat apparent with Paulo Dybala coming on mainly as a substitute.

This is a pretty surprising development, likely a tad unnerving for Juventus fans. One bright spot has been Alvaro Morata, who would have better numbers if he could stay onside more often in the opposition's defensive third.

Last season, Juventus predictably won the Scudetto yet again. It generated an xG rate of 1.94/game and  conceded only 1.08 xG for the season. Obviously, Ronaldo and Dybala carried Juventus, but the team looks a little different.

Dybala is coming off the bench, Morata adds more spark than former standout Gonzalo Higuain and Federico Chiesa has been a nice addition. The defending champion had had a disappointing start to the Serie A season, starting 3-0-2 over five matches.

The xG of 2.14/game and xGA of 1.19 tell me it's not time to panic, though. With Ronaldo back and more time for the team to gel, I expect them to pick up some steam across all competitions.

Betting Analysis

I would have sided with Juventus against a fully fit Lazio, which is far from being the case. With Immobile missing and Ronaldo back, I already played Juventus at minus-104 on the moneyline.

I still think Juventus is a good price at -118, but would probably stop at -125.

I'm going to leave the total alone due to some potential goal regression, a dampened Lazio side and the tightness of a style we could see.

Pick; Juventus ML (-118)

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