Sassuolo at Bologna
| Sassuolo odds | +200 [BET NOW] |
| Bologna odds | +128 [BET NOW] |
| Draw odds | +255 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 3 (-114/-108) [BET NOW] |
| Time | Wednesday at 3:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN 2 |
Odds as of Tuesday night and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
We're at the part of the Serie A season where some matches mean nothing towards the title race, relegation or the hunt for European Football. That is the case for Wednesday's showdown between ninth-place Bologna and 10th-place Sassuolo.
Bologna
Bologna scored two goals in the span of six minutes in the second half to pull off a huge upset over Inter Milan on Sunday. It was another strong result for I Rossoblù, who are one of the more underrated teams in Serie A.
Based on expected goals, they’ve been unlucky both offensively and defensively this season:
| Actual | Expected | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals For | 43 | 49.21 |
| Goals Against | 47 | 41.24 |
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Bologna typically play out of a 4-2-3-1 formation, which provides teams with multiple options going and encourages creativity from their attacking players.
Lately, Musa Barrow has benefited from playing of the left side of this formation he's averaging 0.54 xG per 90 minutes since the restart.
Sassuolo
The Neroverdi's fantastic form since the break has pulled them out of the relegation battle and they have clinched an eighth straight season in Serie A. Sassuolo have picked up eight of a possible 15 points and have a +1 goal differential (14 GF, 13 GA) in their five matches since the restart.
Sassuolo also plays out of the 4-2-3-1 formation, but they haven't mastered it yet. The Neroverdi have an -0.50 average expected goal differential (1.51 xGF, 1.91 xGA) when they play out of the 4-2-3-1 this season.
Analysis
Even though Sassuolo have been in a good run of form, I think they are getting too much respect in this match:
- Bologna projected odds: -149 (59.81% win probability)
- Sassuolo projected odds: +403 (19.87%)
- Draw projected odds: +392 (20.33%)
- Bologna projected xG: 2.13
- Sassuolo projected xG: 1.12
Based on those numbers I am going to back an underrated Bologna side to grab all three points at home.
