Cagliari at Hellas Verona Odds, Pick
| Cagliari odds | +295 (BET NOW) |
| Hellas Verona odds | -104 (BET NOW) |
| Draw odds | +245 (BET NOW) |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+108/-134) (BET NOW) |
| Time | Saturday, 3:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds as of Saturday at 2 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
Hellas Verona have had a great first season back in Serie A, currently sitting in eighth place and only four points off the final Europa League spot.
Cagliari are seven points clear of the relegation zone and sitting comfortably in 12th place. Three points on Saturday would basically guarantee that the Islanders would stay in Serie A in 2020-21.
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Hellas Verona
It has been a dream season for I Gialloblu since their promotion to Serie A. Most of their success has come at the Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi where they've earned 21 points in 12 matches. And that success is thanks in large part to Verona's stout defense which allows only 1.15 expected goals against per game at home.
Verona were in terrific home form before the break, earning 16 of a possible 21 points in their last seven matches at the Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi while posting a +0.73 expected goals differential per match (1.84 xGF, 1.11 xGA).
I expect that great run of form to continue Saturday.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Cagliari
It's been a fairly average season for Cagliari, who are fortunate to be in their usual middle-of-the-table position. The Islanders have a -13.07 xG differential this season but their actual goal differential is +1, so regression looms. According to expected points, Cagliari should have around 25 points and be in a relegation battle, but they instead sit in a relatively safe 12th.
That being said, things could get ugly for Cagliari if they don't turn their game around. The Islanders were winless in their last 11 games and only four of a possible 33 points during that slide. The expected goals numbers don't paint a prettier picture as Cagliari only generated 1.23 xG for and conceded 1.64 xG against in their last 11 matches.
Verona is a quality side, so it's hard to see how Cagliari will break out of their malaise on Saturday.
Analysis
Published Friday night.
- Verona projected odds: -140 (58.32% win probability)
- Cagliari projected odds: +421 (19.20%)
- Draw projected odds: +345 (22.49%)
- Verona projected xG: 1.86
- Cagliari projected xG: 0.99
My model suggests that Verona is undervalued in this match, especially given the difference in form between these two teams going into the pause. I think there is plenty of value on Verona to take all three points at home.
