Atalanta at AC Milan Odds, Pick
| Atalanta odds | +115[BET NOW] |
| AC Milan odds | +190 [BET NOW] |
| Draw | +300 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+107/-134) [BET NOW] |
| Time | Friday, 3:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds as of Tuesday night and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
AC Milan welcomes Atalanta to the San Siro, a classic venue that should be host to an exciting, high-stakes match of Serie A soccer.
Atalanta leads Serie A in goals scored (95), and play a very open and aggressive style. AC Milan had trouble scoring earlier in the year, but have hit their stride since the break (2+ goals in all nine games).
With Juve's loss to Udinese on Thursday, Atalanta could draw within three points of the league leaders with a win on Friday night. Roma, AC Milan, and Napoli are fighting it out for the final two Europa League spots.
The motivation to win is present in this matchup.
Atalanta
Atalanta have scored 95 goals this season, which is 21 more goals than any other team in Serie A. As of late however, La Dea have had some issues creating and converting chances at the same rate.
They have scored 25 goals over their last 10 games, but their expected goals (xG) is only 17.7 over that time frame. They beat Brescia 6-2, but xG in that match was only 2.5.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Now understand, this trend has held true all season long for La Dea. Atalanta have been supremely clinical in the final third all season. Yet, they have been held to a single goal in three of their last six matches.
Atalanta don't have the backing of a Juventus, Inter Milan, or AC Milan, etc. Because of that, their depth is lacking. They also have a pretty old squad. Both of these factors could be reasons why they might be scoring less goals as of late.
My opinion on the matter is they are still undefeated since the hiatus, and might be saving their legs for the bigger games. After all, Atalanta have been outperforming expectations all year, and I expect them to perform against AC Milan.
| Stats Since Restart | Atalanta | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 25 | 27 |
| Expected goals for | 17.7 | 19.8 |
| xGF per game | 1.7 | 2.2 |
AC Milan
AC Milan have had an up and down year. There are plenty of reasons for the roller coaster, but I am going to focus on one: Goals.
Over their first 26 matches, AC Milan scored 28 goals. Now I'm not sure if you (the reader) knows a lot about soccer, but a goal/game is not going to get it done, no matter what league you're playing in.
Over the last nine games however, the Red and Blacks have scored 27 goals (3.0/game). Stefano Pioli has them playing incredible right now, and are arguably the hottest team in Serie A. Similar to Atalanta, Milan have two draws and zero losses since the restart. The difference is, Milan is outscoring the goal juggernaut of Serie A.
Now to the important news for this game: AC Milan will be without three of its four starting defenders, most importantly Alessio Romagnoli. He is one of their leaders, and this will be the first match they play without him all season. That is a tough pill to swallow against a team approaching 100 goals in a season.
Analysis
Earlier in the year when these teams faced off, Atalanta won 5-0. AC Milan is far improved from that time, and this should be a competitive match. think the injuries/suspensions will come back to bite Milan on their end.
Because of that that, I do think Atalanta is cheap at plus-money but my main play will be over 3 (-145) or 3, 3.5 (-115). xG since the break is 3.9 goals/game for these sides combined.
