Napoli at Atalanta Odds, Picks
| Napoli odds | +230 [BET NOW] |
| Atalanta odds | +110 [BET NOW] |
| Draw odds | +265 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-112/-112) [BET NOW] |
| Time | Thursday at 1:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds as of Tuesday and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
There should be some fireworks at the Gewiss Stadium on Thursday when fourth-place Atalanta hosts sixth-place Napoli. Neither team has lost a game since play resumed and they have combined for a +9 goal differential in their five total games.
Atalanta are becoming one of Europe's most popular teams thanks to their high-octane style of play. La Dea have a nine-point cushion over Roma for the fourth and final Champions League spot and a win on Thursday would leave no doubt.
Napoli are currently sitting in the final Europa league spot in the table with a number of challengers right behind them. Gli Azzurri can't afford to drop points if they want to qualify for European football next season.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Atalanta
In my opinion, Atalanta are the most exciting team in all of Europe. Not only do they have the best offense in Serie A, but they lead the entire continent with 2.51 expected goals per match.
With that kind of offensive fire power, its easy to see why La Dea are the best team in Italy according to expected points but they aren't a one-trick pony. Atalanta concede just 1.13 expected goals per match, which is the third-best mark in Serie A.
Nerazzuri have picked up right where they left off before the pandemic, winning all three of their game and scoring 10 goals in the process. Atalanta now have six wins from their last seven matches and have outscored their opponents, 30-11, in the process.
Atalanta have won five of their last seven matches at Gewiss Stadium and boast a +1.22 expected goals differential per match (2.24 xGF, 1.02 xGA) in that span.
Napoli
After struggling through December and January, Gli Azzurri are starting to heat up. Going back to before the break Napoli have now won five matches in a row by a combined score of 10-3.
However, all five of those matches came against teams in the bottom half of the table and Napoli haven't really proven themselves against the cream of the crop this season. Gli Azzurri have just one win in six matches against the teams ahead of them in the table.
Beating a red-hot Atalanta side on the road may be too tall of a task for Napoli on Thursday.
Analysis
Napoli's defense ranks fourth in Serie A in expected goals against, but it's difficult to see how any team will slow down Atalanta at the moment and my model thinks the market is severely underrating La Dea on Thursday:
- Atalanta projected odds: -148 (59.70% win probability)
- Napoli projected odds: +383 (20.70%)
- Draw projected odds: +410 (19.60%)
- Atalanta projected xG: 2.25
- Napoli projected xG: 1.21
