Serie A Odds: Fiorentina at Parma
| Fiorentina odds | +138 [BET NOW] |
| Parma odds | +200 [BET NOW] |
| Draw odds | +235 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-118/-106) [BET NOW] |
| Time | Sunday at 1:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN 2 |
Odds as of Saturday afternoon and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
The first thing you'll notice about the odds for Sunday afternoon's match between Parma and Fiorentina is that the team with the worse record is favored, even though they are on the road.
That tells you a lot about these two teams.
Parma may be sitting comfortably in 10th place but I Crociati are plenty fortunate not to be in a relegation fight. Only two teams, Juventus and Lazio, have a bigger gulf between their actual points and their expected points (also known as xPoints and based off a team's expected goal differential) than Parma does.
According to xPoints, Parma have been the 16th-best team in Serie A this season.
On the other side of Lady Luck sit 13th-place Fiorentina. According to xPoints, La Viola should be about nine points higher in the table and fighting for a spot in the Europa League. Fiorentina are not really threatened by relegation at the moment, but a loss to Parma would put some serious pressure on them down the stretch.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
| Parma | Fiorentina | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for per game | 1.38 | 1.21 |
| Expected goals for per game | 1.09 | 1.39 |
| Goals against per game | 1.31 | 1.45 |
| Expected goals against per game | 1.64 | 1.33 |
| Total goals per game | 2.69 | 2.66 |
| Total expected goals per game | 2.73 | 2.72 |
Over the course of the season, Fiorentina have played a more consistent game than Parma, but La Viola have sputtered a bit after the restart. A loss to Lazio was to be expected but a draw against Brescia and a loss to Sassuolo could be a tad concerning. I'm not that worried, though, as Fiorentina deserved to win the match against Brescia and the 3-1 scoreline flattered Sassuolo big time.
Parma have a win, a draw and a pair of losses since and there's very little to like about their form. Even their win was shaky as they somehow beat Genoa, 4-1, despite losing the xG battle 2.08 to 1.79.
Parma's defense has been especially leaky since the break, so I like Fiorentina to find a couple of goals in this match. If they can, I trust their defense to see this thing through.
Despite have fewer points and playing on the road, Fiorentina deserve to be favorites in this match and I like their chances to take all three points on Sunday.
