Napoli vs. Roma Odds
| Napoli odds | +104 [BET NOW] |
| Roma odds | +255 [BET NOW] |
| Draw odds | +260 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-143/-116) [BET NOW] |
| Time | Sunday at 3:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
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A top half of the table clash finishes out Match Day 30 in Serie A, as Roma heads to the San Paolo Stadium to take on Napoli. Both teams are currently in the two Europa League spots in the table, with a number of challengers hot on their heels.
Three points for either side would go a long way in securing European football next season.
Napoli
Napoli's hot run of form since the break came to a halt on Thursday, losing 2-0 against Atalanta. Before the loss, Napoli had won five matches in a row by a combined score of 10-3. However, their struggles continued versus teams ahead of them in the table, bringing their record to 1-1-5 against the top 5 in Serie A this season.
The San Paolo Stadium just hasn't felt like home for Gil Azzurri this year. Napoli have earned just 20 points from 14 matches, which ranks 9th in Serie A.
However, based on expected goals and expected points, they've been a tad unlucky. Gil Azzurri should have earned 6.54 more points and have a +10.92 expected goal differential at home, both of which rank sixth in Serie A.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Matches involving Napoli typically feature a lot of goals, with a total of 2.88 expected goals scored per match. That number gets even higher when they're at the San Paolo Stadium, in which a total of 3.11 expected goals are scored per match. It's easy to see why 64% of their matches at home go over 2.5 goals.
Roma
It's been an interesting season in the Italian capitol. Roma is in fifth place, but with their 2-0 loss at home on Thursday to Udinese, they now find themselves 12 points off Atalanta for the final Champions League spot in the table. I Giallorossi has been the third best offensive team in Italy, averaging 2.00 expected goals per game. However, the goal scoring has escaped them the last two matches, putting up back to back bagels against AC Milan and Udinese.
I Giallorossi are lead up top by the ageless Edin Dzeko. The 34-year-old has bagged 14 goals and has a 0.73 xG per 90 minute scoring rate so far this season. Outside of Dzeko, Roma has struggled to find another consistent goal scorer as their next highest scorer is only at six goals.
Despite their lack of goal scoring in their two matches, matches involving Roma have been high scoring, with 3.26 total expected goals scored per match. It's the reason why 62% of their matches have flown over 2.5 goals.
Analysis
Based on my model, I think there is little value in backing either side in this match:
- Napoli projected odds: +132 (43.01% win probability)
- Roma projected odds: +199 (33.50% win probability)
- Draw projected odds: +326 (23.49% win probability)
- Napoli projected xG: 1.69
- Roma projected xG: 1.46
Instead, since I have 3.15 projected goals being scored in this match, I am going to back the total of over 3 goals at plus money.
