Serie A: AC Milan at Lecce Odds, Pick
| AC Milan odds | -165 (BET NOW) |
| Lecce odds | +425 (BET NOW) |
| Draw odds | +310 (BET NOW) |
| Over/Under | 3 (+112/-139) (BET NOW) |
| Time | Monday, 1:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds as of Sunday night via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
Monday's Serie A matchup features two teams at opposite ends of the table.
Lecce currently occupy 18th place and are in serious danger of dropping down to Serie B. AC Milan sit in a disappointing ninth place but could tie Napoli for sixth place with three points on Monday.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Lecce
It's been a difficult first season in Serie A for Lecce, who have the worst defensive record in Serie A by a longshot. I Salentini have conceded 66 goals on 66.20 expected goals this season, both of which rank dead last in the circuit. In fact, Lecce have allowed 16.39 more xG than the next closest team.
Lecce just can't cope with Italy's best offenses. In 15 matches against the top-half of the table I Salentini are conceding an eye-popping 3.04 expected goals per game.
Lecce has struggled to find any form at home this season. Fabio Liverani's side have only won twice in 13 matches at Via Del Mare Stadium. Due to their poor defense, matches in Lecce have featured plenty of scoring opportunities. Matches at Via Del Mare Stadium average a whopping 3.78 expected goals this season.
Fifty-four percent of Lecce matches have soared over 3.5 goals and it's easy to see why. AC Milan shouldn't have much trouble getting behind this defense.
AC Milan
AC Milan has fallen short of their expectations in 2019-20.
Sitting on 36 points, AC Milan's +5.58 expected goal differential is eighth in Serie A and suggests that their results are pretty much in line with how they've performed this season. The Rossoneri have been an average team through their first 26 matches.
It did seem like Milan was beginning to find their form before the pandemic. The Rossoneri earned 14 points and boasted a +3.97 expected goals differential in their last eight games before the break.
A match against the worst defense in Serie A should help The Rossoneri get their legs under them after the three-month hiatus.
Betting Pick
AC Milan are the better team and opened as heavy favorites on the road, but the price is too high for my liking. Here are my projected odds and expected goals for this match:
- Lecce projected odds: +356 (21.94% win probability)
- AC Milan projected odds: -142 (58.60%)
- Draw projected odds: +414 (19.46%)
- Lecce projected xG: 1.28
- AC Milan projected xG: 2.30
Based on those numbers I see little value backing either side on the moneyline and instead will focus on the total. I project this game for 3.58 expected goals, so I think there's plenty of value on the Over 3 at plus-money on Monday.
