Cagliari vs. Torino Odds & Predictions
| Cagliari odds | +138 |
|---|---|
| Torino odds | +210 |
| Draw odds | +225 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+102/-125) |
| Time | Saturday at 1:30pm ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Odds as of Friday evening and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
Serie A rolls on Saturday with a bottom of the table matchup between Cagliari and Torino. Both come into the game with one win and one loss since the restart.
Cagliari is sitting right in the middle of the table — clear out of the relegation fight, but too far from a Europa league position unless they get on a massive hot streak to end the season.
Torino is starting to climb out of the relegation fight, sitting six points clear. Three points would bolster them out of the relegation fight and secure another season in Serie A.
Cagliari
Isolani Rossoblu was in terrible form before their 1-0 win at SPAL mid week. Before Wednesday's victory, Cagliari was winless in their last 12 matches. Isolani Rossoblu were unfortunate not to gather at least one win over that streak as they only had an expected goal differential of -3.51. Additionally, most of their home schedule was against difficult opponents over that stretch.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
All four of their losses at home during those 12 matches came against teams ahead of them in the table.
Cagliari has found a lot of success at home against teams below them in the table. In six matches, Isolani Rossoblu is 5-0-1 against the bottom of the table. The reason for their success is defense, as they are only allowing 1.27 xG per game, which is much lower than their current 1.65 xG allowed per game.
Torino
Much like Cagliari, Torino was in a terrible run of form before their 1-0 against Udinese on Wednesday. It was their first win in their last eight matches dating all the way back to mid January.
Life on the road has not been too kind to Il Toro this season. Torino is mustering only 1.13xGF per game while allowing 1.82 xG per game, both of which rank in the bottom-five of Serie A. They've also been in poor form lately on the road, losing their last four matches as well as the expected goals battle 6.68 to 3.86.
Even after their win against Udinese on Wednesday, it's difficult to back Il Toro to get all three points in this match.
EPL PROMO!Bet $1, Win $50 if ANY team scores this week.
Analysis
This game opened around a pick'em, but has started to move towards Cagliari as the favorite. Based on my model, I think Cagliari should be a slightly bigger favorite in this match:
- Cagliari projected odds: +105 (48.83% win probability)
- Torino projected odds: +290 (25.62% win probability)
- Draw projected odds: +291 (25.55% win probability)
- Cagliari projected xG: 1.53
- Torino projected xG: 1.07
In a game of two teams in bad form, I am going to back the home getting a little bit of value of the moneyline.
