Juventus vs. Atalanta Serie A Odds, Picks, Predictions (Wednesday, Dec. 16)

Juventus vs. Atalanta Odds

There are a couple of huge matches on the Serie A schedule this week, but none may be bigger than Juventus vs. Atalanta at the Allianz Stadium in Turin. Both of these clubs look like they've begun to right the ship after bumpy start, but considering that neither one is within striking distance of league-leaders Milan, these are three huge points on the line.

The bookmakers expect Juventus to win, especially with Atalanta missing club captain Papu Gomez, but count out Atalanta at your own risk.

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Juventus

Juve are currently unbeaten in Serie A, but that is a bit misleading as the nine-time defending champions have drawn five of their first 11 matches and two of those ties came against newly-promoted sides.

Currently sitting fourth, Juve have to feel good about where they are in the table considering how they have played thus far. The Old Lady are fourth in Serie A with a +11.37 non-penalty expected goal differential (npxGD), so their results are a fair reflection of how they've played to date.

Juventus depend on Cristiano Ronaldo to create chances and that over-reliance can sometimes cause the offense to grow stagnant. When that happens, Juve dominate possession in the opposition's third and just fire in cross after cross until someone can score.

Needless to say, it can be frustrating to bet on Juventus matches.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Juve's recent form is pretty solid with three wins and two draws against Lazio and Benevento. Outside of the disappointing draw to Benevento, the three wins look impressive from an xG standpoint as Andrea Pirlo's side created at least 2.5 expected goals in each contests.

However, if you watch the tape of the victories over Torino and Genoa you can tell that things are not quite clicking for Juventus. There is no free-flowing attack, but rather a lot of possession that doesn't lead to anything in the way of quality scoring chances.

The expected goals models will tell you that Juve are dominating, but there's still a lot to be desired. Take the Torino game for example. Juventus dominated in terms of xG, but both goals came from set pieces.

The good news is that Paolo Dybala looked like he found his game against Genoa. If he can consistently score goals, things would look more rosy for the defending champs.

Atalanta

After a Cinderella run last season, the Boys from Bergamo are off to a sluggish start in 2020/21. Atalanta are currently in sixth-place in Serie A, but are just four points back of sixth-place Roma and have a game in hand over all eight teams ahead of them in the standings.

The big story from Bergamo is the beef between star midfielder Papu Gomez and manager Gian Piero Gasperini. It sounds like Papu might be gone in the January transfer window, which has some people sounding alarm bells around Gewiss Stadium.

I am a huge fan of Papu, but the ball can just sit with him sometimes as the other players watch and wait for him to work his magic. You could say that tactic has grown a bit stale and Atalanta could benefit from an influx of energy through other players like Ruslan Malinovskyi, but losing Papu is certainly not ideal.

Juventus vs. Atalanta Betting Pick

I expect Atalanta to get a result here.

According to their expected goals, Atalanta have been right on par with Juve with a +11.04 npxGD. Those numbers are a bit of a disappointment considering that La Dea led Serie A with 86.2 expected goals for in 2019/20, but they are still quite good for a team going through a rough patch.

Atalanta followed a gritty win over Ajax up with a thorough victory over Fiorentina, so La Dea could be finding some form. Juventus have not given bettors a reason to trust them as odds-on favorites, so I think there's value backing Atalanta at +0.5 (-105).

The Bet: Atalanta +0.5 (-105)