Sevilla vs PSV Prediction: Champions League Preview & Pick

Wednesday, Nov. 29

12:45 p.m. ET

Paramount+

Sevilla Odds	+160
PSV Odds	+162
Draw	+250
Over / Under	2.5  -138 / +107

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Sevilla and PSV meet in Spain for a crucial match that could decide who goes to the Champions League round of 16.

The Spanish side are in terrible form at the moment, as they are winless in La Liga since late September and only have two points through four Champions League matches. It seems the crazy over-performing run they had in the Europa League last year is finally catching up with them because Diego Alonso has no answers at the moment.

PSV are absolutely flying domestically under Peter Bosz, sitting atop the Eredivisie table with a +43 goal differential in only 13 matches. However, they are tied with Lens for second place in the group, but they do hold the tiebreaker over them. The problem is PSV host Arsenal on the final day of the group stage, while Lens gets Sevilla at home, so this match is incredibly crucial for their chances at getting to the round of 16.

Let's dive into my Sevilla vs PSV prediction.

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Sevilla

PSV are a perfect 13-for-13 in the Ereidivise this season under Bosz, and the reason for it is because their counter pressing has improved quite a bit. Compared to last season, PSV’s PPDA has gone from 11.7 to 9.2 and their high turnovers per 90 have gone from 9.7 to 12.5. 

They also are putting up ridiculous underlying numbers averaging 2.9 npxG per 90 minutes and 24 shots per match, but that was largely against lesser competition. The reason they are putting up these ridiculous numbers is because there are some interesting tactical things that Bosz is doing. He is utilizing positional play where they don’t necessarily put an emphasis on one area of the pitch, but instead try to create numerical advantages and manipulate the defense to create space for runners from the midfield to invade the box. 

It worked well against Sevilla in the previous match because they did not deserve to draw them 2-2. The final expected goals tally was 2.6 to 1.3. They-out shot Sevilla 25 to 10 and had a 71.4% field tilt while also putting up an xThreat of 2.35. 

There really isn’t any reason why they should be an underdog to Sevilla because they are a far superior team at the moment.

PSV

Sevilla are still a terrible defensive team. They are allowing 1.57 xG per 90 minutes in La Liga because they are not good in either set or transition defense. They are actually the No. 1 field tilt team in Spain, which is kind of surprising, but when it’s come to the Champions League and they’ve played both Arsenal and Sevilla, two teams that will possess and tilt the field on them, it’s pretty clear that Sevilla don't have a game plan. 

That was so evident in their last Champions League match against Arsenal when they took one shot for the entire match. They’ve also been in terrible form because if you remove a Copa Del Rey match win against Quintanar, who are in the third division of Spanish football, their last win came on September 26th against Almeria, who are currently at the bottom of the La Liga table. 

The offensive numbers haven't really been that impressive either. Sevilla are only averaging 1.13 npxG per 90 minutes in La Liga, which is very poor considering they are attempting the second most shots and have completed the most crosses into the penalty area. Over the last few years Sevilla have been the poster child for relying on crosses to be their entire offense and that has not changed, but the problem is if they can't get a chance off of a crosses they are kind of stuck offensively.

Sevilla's xG per shot right now is 0.07, which is second-lowest in Spain to only Las Palmas. 116 of their 206 shots in La Liga have come from outside the box, which is the highest percentage in Spain. So, quite simply, they are not creating high quality chances at the moment.

Sevilla vs PSV

Prediction

Given the form that these two teams are in, I really don't think Sevilla should be a slight favorite.

PSV dominating possession and tilting the field on Sevilla makes them play a style that they are not comfortable in, sitting in a low defensive block for a majority of the match. Bosz has his team set up pretty close to perfect tactically and they are elite at breaking down low blocks as shown in their first match against Sevilla, when they put up 2.6 xG.

Sevilla can be dangerous in transition, but given how low of quality their chances have been, they have to rely on above average finishing from Youssef En-Nesyri and the rest of their attackers.

This is an all in spot for both teams, but especially crucial for PSV, who have to face Arsenal on the final day.

I have PSV projected as a favorite, so I like their value draw no bet.

Pick: PSV – Draw No Bet (-105 via bet365)