Shakhtar Donetsk and Atalanta meet for a crucial Champions League encounter on Wednesday in Germany.
Shakhtar held on for a 0-0 draw with Bologna in their opening match, but it wasn't that impressive. Shakhtar have been mainstays in the Champions League for a long time now, but it's been six years since they have made the knockout stage. Because of the ongoing war with Russia, this match will have to be played at a neutral site, at Schalke's stadium in Germany.
Atalanta may have won the Europa League last season, but this year's team looks completely different. They drew Arsenal at home in the first Champions League match, but in Serie A they only have two wins in their first six matches. Injuries and key players leaving have really taken its toll, but this will also be their third match in eight days.
Let's get into the 12:45 Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Atalanta Champions League fixture.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Atalanta Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Shakhtar Donetsk Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +110 | 2.5 -145o / +105u | +380 |
| Atalanta Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -145 | 2.5 -145o / +105u | -145 |
- Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Atalanta moneyline odds: Shakhtar +380, Atalanta -145, Draw +310
- Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Atalanta over/under: 2.5 goals (over -145, under +105)
- Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Atalanta pick: Shakhtar +0.5
I am backing Shakhtar +0.5 in Atalanta vs. Shakhtar Donetsk.
Shakhtar Donetsk Preview
Shakhtar got an early penalty against Bologna, but after that they proceeded to take only two shots for the remainder of the match. With that being said, they did do a valiant job defensively, sitting in a compact defensive structure and holding Bologna to 1.2 expected goals on 17 shots.
Shakhtar have had a pretty rough start to the Ukrainian Premier League, as they’ve already lost two matches and are sitting in the middle of the table. Marino Pusic took over midway through the season last year and was actually in charge for their final four Champions League matches. The underlying numbers domestically in Ukraine haven't been elite, as they're only have a +0.78 xGD per 90 minutes.
With that being said, there is some talent across this team and they have a star in the making in Georgiy Sudakov, who has been linked to a lot of top clubs. He is the one who connects everything for their build up. He's press resistant, will drop in between the lines to receive the ball and is also a really good creator.
Even though Shakhtar's Champions League results haven't been great over the last few years, they were really good in these neutral site matches last year. They got a famous 1-0 win over Barcelona and then grabbed all three points against Antwerp as well, so they will be live underdogs in this match.
Atalanta Preview
At one time, Atalanta were a really good defensive team, but now they are shipping goals left and right because teams have figured out their man to man press. What is happening is right now is teams are playing direct balls over the top of their press and getting them into 1 v 1 situations.
Atalanta are shipping goals in Serie A. The man-to-man marking system is being exploited in the transition.
The reward outweighs the risk of not tracking the Atalanta forward runners.
The turnovers create separation from Atalanta's assigned markers.
Arsenal were too honest. pic.twitter.com/leKrTNZ9gI
— Tactx (@Tactx_) September 25, 2024
So far in Serie A, they have conceded 10 goals in six matches and are allowing 1.35 xG per 90 minutes. In addition to that, their PPDA and high turnovers forced are around the average in Serie A.
When in possession under Gasperini, Atalanta will consistently build up out of a back three, trying to get wide passing triangles against the opponent's press, and they do it with a lot of success.
Then once they enter the final third they commit a ton of bodies into the attack and have been really good creating chances from wide areas, as they’ve completed the third-most crosses into the penalty area in Serie A since the start of last season. But they lost their main creator Teun Koopmeiners in the middle, which is a massive loss considering he was their leading goalscorer with 12 in Serie A and led them in passes completed into the penalty area.
In addition to losing Koopmeiners, Atalanta also lost their star striker Gianluca Scamacca to long term injury. He was tied with Koopmeiners with 12 goals, but the loss of both of them is really going to affect their best winger Ademola Lookman, who now is going to get double teamed every time he touches the ball.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Atalanta Prediction
This is not the best of spots for Atalanta, who are already dealing with a lot of injuries and will be playing their third match in only eight days with this also being their second away match on only three days of rest.
More than anything, the price is simply way too high for what Atalanta are right now. They are still being priced like the team that won the Europa League, but they are the furthest thing from that right now with how bad they have been defensively to start the Serie A season. They also created next to nothing against Arsenal in their first Champions League match outside of the penalty.
Shakhtar have one more day of rest and have performed very well in these neutral site matches in the Champions League in recent years, so I like the value on them +0.5 at +120.
