Sheffield United vs Brighton Odds
| Sheffield United Odds | +400 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion Odds | -154 |
| Draw | +333 |
| Over / Under | 3.5 +130o / -163u |
Sheffield United looks to complete back-to-back Premier League wins Sunday for the first time this season when it hosts a Brighton side trying to earn the right to compete in Europe for the second consecutive season.
The Blades still only have three league wins, and despite being the first club to part with a manager, are almost certain to return to the League Championship at season’s end. But they’ve been a much more enjoyable watch since Chris Wilder’s takeover, including a surprising 3-1 win at Luton Town last weekend.
The Seagulls are again in a comfortable league position while managing their first-ever European campaign. But they’ve been consistently inconsistent since their participation in the UEFA Europa League began, with only one pair of consecutive victories if you look at the all-competitions schedule.
This is the third meeting between these sides after a 1-1 draw in league play on the South Coast last November, and a 5-2 Brighton win at Bramall Lane in the FA Cup just last month.
Here is how I'm betting Sheffield United vs Brighton.
Sheffield United
The Blades have still taken only 0.8 points per Premier League match since Wilder assumed the reins late last year, but that is a marked improvement after Paul Heckingbottom’s team earned only five points in the first 14 league fixtures.
And while even the most fervent Sheffield United fans are probably anticipating a return to the League Championship at season’s end, Wilder’s team has given those supporters a much more interesting brand of football to watch.
They’ve scored 11 goals in those 10 games, including multiple goals in four of those. The three sides to keep the Blades scoreless under Wilder’s guidance all entered the weekend in the top five in the table.
That newfound sense of adventure hasn’t solved their defensive issues, however. They’ve kept one clean sheet in the league this season — a 1-0 win over Brentford in Wilder’s second game in charge — and are still leaking more than two goals per league match under the new boss.
Cameron Archer scored his team-lead-tying fourth goal to get things started at Luton, and a fortunately earned penalty boosted the Blades into a 2-0 halftime advantage.
Archer helped pick up the slack left by Ben Brereton Díaz's absence. The winter loan signing from Villareal already has two goals for his temporary new club, but then picked up a hamstring injury that kept him out against the Hatters.
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Brighton
Even if you look only at Brighton’s league schedule and results, it’s pretty easy to tell when European play began for the Seagulls: right when their rampant start to the league campaign ended.
Roberto De Zerbi’s squad won five of its first six Premier League fixtures, but has been treading water since it launched its successful Europa League group stage efforts, having failed to win consecutive league games since September.
But their ability to at least grind out draws when at less than their 100% capabilities has seen them avoid any serious flirtation with relegation. Their eight ties are the most earned by a Premier League team this season and constitute a 33.3% draw rate when only 20% of games have finished level league wide.
So why haven’t they been able to regain steam during the respite between the group stage and knockout rounds? Partly they are victims of their success, having also progressed to the last 16 of the FA Cup in the new year to keep the calendar crowded.
And partly it’s a similar injury phenomenon to what Newcastle has gone through. The latest big name in the training room is João Pedro, who leads the Seagulls with eight league goals and also pounced for a hat trick in these teams’ FA Cup meeting.
But De Zerbi will welcome African Cup of Nations champion Simon Adingra back to the club, while Kaoru Mitoma also returns from the Asia Cup. Those reinforcements come at a crucial time after a dispiriting 2-1 defeat at Spurs, in which Brighton led early and lost very late.
The Seagulls have won already at Bramall Lane, but have some of the most extreme home/away splits, winning only three times on their travels while losing only once at home.
Sheffield United vs Brighton
Prediction
This is a strange one. The moneyline is probably too heavily tilted toward Brighton given its poor away form. And yet when you consider the likelihood of a higher-scoring match — these teams have seen the total go over 3.5 exactly half the time in their league games — that would seem to favor the Seagulls.
In fact, of their nine league wins, eight have seen the total cash above 3.5 goals. Meanwhile, the Blades have earned only five points in the 11 league matches where the total has landed above 3.5.
So if you think both teams’ tendencies as currently constructed point in that direction, then suddenly it makes backing the visitors a lot more palatable. Parlay the two wagers and suddenly you have a much more attractive price of +250 odds and an implied 28.6% probability. There’s probably some value above +210 or so, which is available at most books at the time of writing.
Pick: Brighton ML and Over 3.5 Goals, same-game parlay (+250 via ESPNBet)
