Sheffield United vs Burnley Odds
| Sheffield United Odds | +170 |
| Burnley Odds | +145 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -138 / +110 |
Burnley face a must-win away game if they are to maintain any chance of survival when they visit a Sheffield United squad whose realistic survival hopes have already faded.
Burnley begin the weekend six points adrift of safety with five games to play following a frustrating run where clear improvement has too often resulted in draws instead of victories.
Meanwhile, the Blades saw any remote hope of a late challenge to stay in the league likely squashed last weekend in a 2-0 loss at Brentford.
Burnley won the previous meeting 5-0 at Turf Moor in a result that spelled the end for former Sheffield United boss Paul Heckingbottom.
Here is how I'm betting Sheffield United vs Burnley in my latest Premier League match preview.
Sheffield United
United may have failed to come through on our aggressive team total wager in last weekend's defeat, but it was still a performance that suggested continued improvement in the back half of the season.
The expected goals totals were nearly even in this one despite Brentford pulling an unexpected switch back to a 4-3-3 for the first time in nearly 20 games in all competitions. And Ben Brereton Diaz, whose impact on the shape and potency of the Blades' attack has been undeniable, actually had the most dangerous chance for either side according to the number crunchers.
But Mark Flekken denied his 10th-minute, left-footed volley. From there, the Bees suppressed United's ability to create. And the Blades do what they do on the other end of the pitch – concede an unacceptable amount of goals relative to the chances allowed.
The Bees' comfortable win ultimately came in part thanks to a Blades own goal, the latest in a season of defensive gifts United have bestowed. They have now conceded more than 22 more goals than their expected goals against would predict.
That's a rate of about two extra goals every three games and a practice that would be difficult to overcome in any league, let alone arguably the best on earth. And it has resulted in 84 conceded, an all-time record through this stage of a Premier League season.
Wilder has earned points at an incrementally better rate than Heckingbottom, but taking points has typically required two or more goals for his side. So if you come to a situation where you like backing his side, the totals market probably remains the place to do so.
Burnley
For a second consecutive game last weekend, an error by goalkeeper Arijanet Muric cost the Clarets points in their 1-1 home draw to Brighton and Hove Albion.
Two matches ago, the Kosovo international dallied too long in playing the ball out of the back, allowing Dominic Calvert-Lewin to block his eventual clearance attempt into the goal in the Toffees' 1-0 win. Then against the Seagulls, Muric perhaps had that play in his head as he tried to control a backpass quickly and instead deflected it into his own goal.
And yet he's unlikely to lose his spot because despite those errors the team has played better since his regular involvement in Vincent Kompany's starting XI began. They've earned six points in the five matches he's played, and he was near-single-handedly responsible for a stunning 2-2 draw with 10 men at Chelsea late last month.
Further, the analytics aren't very friendly toward James Trafford, the England youth international who started Burnley's first 28 games in the net.
Up front, David Datro Fofana has cooled off of late. If the half-season loan signing from Chelsea fails to score on Saturday, it will tie his longest barren stretch in the league at four matches since his debut in late January.
Sheffield United vs Burnley
Prediction
The conditions have changed somewhat, but the value here remains on a higher Sheffield United team total, as it has been in the last several weeks.
The Blades may have been held at Brentford their last time out. Even so, they had the game's best chance, and converting it could've changed the match's complexion in terms of the visitors creating further chances.
And when Brereton Diaz plays, they've still scored multiple goals on five-of-eight occasions in the league, including three out of four home matches.
Burnley aren't as shaky defensively as Luton or Nottingham Forest, two other sides in the relegation scrap, but they certainly won't be mistaken for a top unit at the back. So while the margin of error isn't as big here as in previous games, the play is still on the hosts to score more than 1.5 goals at +128 odds and an implied 43.9% probability.
It's still the better move than the moneyline given the continued defensive struggles for Wilder's group, and the value is probably there at even money or better.
I also think Datro Fofana is a good anytime goal-scorer play if you can find him above +150 odds and an implied 40% probability. He's been well worth his goals total so far, and is due.
