Sheffield United vs Chelsea Odds
| Sheffield United Odds | +550 |
| Chelsea Odds | -250 |
| Draw | +425 |
| Over / Under | 3.5 +100o / -125u |
Chelsea will look to build on its stunning midweek victory over Manchester United when it hosts a Sheffield United side that could be feeling more confident after giving Liverpool a real scare at Anfield.
Mauricio Pochettino's squad pulled off the unlikeliest of late reversals Thursday night, with Cole Palmer completing a hat trick by scoring his second penalty in the 10th minute of second-half stoppage time and then adding an astonishing deflected winner a minute later in a 4-3 Chelsea victory.
Chris Wilder's Blades pressured Liverpool into scoring a second-half own goal that leveled affairs at 1-1. But the dam eventually burst in a 3-1 defeat at Anfield that took Sheffield United closer to sealing its long-presumed relegation fate.
Chelsea won these teams' previous meeting 2-0 at Stamford Bridge in what was a relatively cagey affair given the track records for both these clubs, with Palmer and Nicolas Jackson scoring.
Sheffield United
The Blades were probably somewhat fortunate to be in the game at Anfield despite creating only one scoring chance with above a 0.05 expected goal value.
But in the grand scheme of things, it was a continuation of the Blades being more dangerous since Wilder took over the club and Ben Brereton Díaz come into the fold.
The Blades have scored in all but one of Brereton Díaz's eight appearances in all competitions since his arrival on loan from Villareal in the secondary transfer window. They've found the net multiple times in all but two of those games, including against top-half opponents like Brighton and West Ham.
Just as important for the sake of the trend, two of the Blades' three recent embarrassing home losses in which they conceded five or more goals and scored none came while Brereton Díaz nursed an injury.
There's potentially more good news on the horizon, with striker Cameron Archer potentially returning from a calf injury in a substitute role. While Archer isn't as integral — or as much of a dual threat — as Brereton Díaz, he does give the Blades more verticality against a Chelsea squad that was hit twice on the counter by United on Thursday night.
Chelsea
Palmer is living the high life even as Chelsea remains frustratingly inconsistent.
The immensely talented 21-year-old has vaulted into a three-way tie for third place in the Premier League golden boot chase following a stretch in which he's scored seven times in his last four appearances in all competitions.
And while those stats are certainly inflated by his eight goals from the penalty spot — including three of his last five — it's still a good thing to have someone capable in that role, especially for a team that has put defenses under as much continuous pressure as Chelsea has.
Essentially, Palmer has solved Pochettino's problem of a side that didn't score as often as the chances it created suggested. The next step for his youthful group is getting far tighter on the other end of the pitch. The Blues have kept only four clean sheets in the league all season, and only one since the start of 2024.
They haven't particularly been worse on their travels than at home. But they've conceded multiple goals in eight of their 14 league away games this season, a stat that hasn't varied much based on the quality of their opponent. It's held at a 50% rate against teams in the bottom half right now, and in one of their first two games against teams currently in the relegation zone.
Sheffield United vs Chelsea
Prediction
At some point in a season, a team is its results rather than its analytic numbers. And this Chelsea side is still a team that concedes way too many goals, even if the xG numbers suggest it shouldn't. They've been earning better results of late not because they've fixed the problem, but in spite of it.
This also feels like a potential trap-game scenario following the drama of Thursday night's home win for a team whose consistent trait is inconsistency.
Add the Blades' habit for scoring goals against teams they are worse than — even in defeat — and I think you have to take the wager on Sheffield United to score two or more at +225 odds that connote a probability of 3o.8% — as uncomfortable as it feels.
It's a better price than a double-chance wager, and the track record suggests a far greater chance of the Blades scoring twice and losing than earning a point while only scoring zero or one goal.
Also, a note about Palmer: Seeing him in plus money as an anytime goal scorer at some books has to be exceptionally tempting. But his recent outburst has come at home, and he's a far less likely scorer away because Chelsea earns far fewer penalties as an away team. If there's a play on him, it's as an assist man. He has four in seven away games against bottom-half foes, though I'm staying away because the expected assist numbers don't support that hefty haul.
Pick: Sheffield United Over 1.5 Goals (+225 via Bet365)
