Sheffield United vs Everton Odds
| Sheffield United Odds | +200 |
| Everton Odds | +140 |
| Draw | +230 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +120 / -150 |
It's early days, but there might already be the feel of a relegation six-pointer when Sheffield United and Everton meet at Bramall Lane in search of each side's first points of the season.
The Blades have come from a goal down in their last two league matches to level affairs, only to concede late winners in 2-1 defeats away to Nottingham Forest and home against Manchester City.
Everton have yet to score in the new Premier League season, but statistically they were shown to create the better chances in their 1-0 home losses to Fulham to open the season and to Wolves last weekend.
The visitors have won the last four league meetings between these sides, most recently with the Blades seeing off the Toffees 1-0 at Goodison Park in May of 2021 — their final PL game before their most-recent promotion.
Let's get into my Sheffield United vs Everton pick.
Sheffield United
So far, the Blades have slightly overachieved their xG total of 1.7 over three matches, and that only tells part of the story of an offensively-challenged squad.
According to StatsBomb's xG numbers, manager Paul Heckingbottom's side have created exactly one big chance through those three games — defined as a chance with an xG value of 0.3 or greater. That came through Anel Ahmedhodzic's 90th-minute volley attempt in the City defeat.
And perhaps an even more damning indictment is that the Blades have totaled only 0.5 xG across the 159 minutes of play in which they weren't trailing.
The hope is the arrival of 22-year-old Cameron Archer from Aston Villa — who has only previously scored on loan in the League Championship or below — will give Sheffield United more balance in the form of at least a competent striking presence.
Archer made his Blades debut in midweek and had one shot on target in a 62-minute start. Sheffield United ultimately exited on penalties to League One's Lincoln City following a 0-0 draw.
Everton
Everton have also lacked a striking presence with Dominic Calvert-Lewin on the shelf again and Neal Maupay in a serious drought, but they've been far better in terms of creating chances — at least in front of their home fans.
Fulham goalkeeper Bernd Leno gave a man-of-the-match performance to foil Everton 1-0 at Goodison in both teams' season opener, and Jose Sa was nearly as good for Wolves in their 1-0 win last weekend. Between those games, the Toffees posted 4.0 of their total 4.6 xG created this season, and they could consider themselves unfortunate not to take at least a point from both matches.
The same can't be said of Everton's only PL away day so far, a 4-0 thrashing at Aston Villa on match day 2. It looked like the Toffees were headed for even more embarrassment on their travels when they conceded before halftime at League Two Doncaster in a League Cup second-round tie on Wednesday.
However, the halftime introduction of new signing Beto — a striker formerly of Udinese — helped change the match's complexion considerably. After wasting one chance, the Portuguese marksman scored a lovely goal on the run on his second and then rattled the woodwork with a header before Villareal loanee Arnaut Danjuma found an 88th-minute winner for his first goal for the club.
Sheffield United vs Everton
Pick & Prediction
One interesting trend from the Dyche era at Everton is that away games have trended toward higher-scoring encounters than home fixtures. That's not necessarily a surprise given Dyche's teams actually press and counter a lot more than they're given credit for. But the disparity is pretty stark.
In 10 Premier League away games under his watch, teams have combined for an average of 3.7 xG per 90 minutes. The total over 3.5 has cashed on six out of 10 occasions. Only one game featured fewer than two goals — a 0-0 draw against Crystal Palace.
That has to be measured against a Blades side that has shown virtually no interest in proactive attacking until they fall behind. But there is very much the possibility here that one goal on either side opens the way for more, especially if Beto continues his strong start.
I'm leaning toward goals more than you might expect. My favorite wager in that mind is to play the second-half total to rise to over 1.5 goals at +150 and an implied 40% probability. It's cashed in half of these teams' matches so far this season and controls for the possibility that the game opens up only after one of these teams finds a goal later on.
I also like playing the visitors — now armed with a competent striker — to score two or more (+172, 36.8% implied probability) because this game feels set up for what is still a skilled countering side to find joy if they can get that first one. Everton scored two or more in three out of their five league games under Dyche against the lower half of last year's table.
The price is better than the moneyline, and my confidence in the Toffees' ability to see out a 1-0 away win based on their defending is low, so this is the better play for me.
