Sheffield United vs Fulham Odds
| Sheffield United Odds | +350 |
| Fulham Odds | -138 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -150 / +115 |
Fulham will look to become the latest team to take advantage of Sheffield United's abysmal home form when the sides meet on Saturday at Bramall Lane.
The Blades have been poor in front of their fans all season. But recent travails have taken the pain to a new level, with opponents outscoring Chris Wilder's men 16-0 in their last three league meetings on home turf.
Fulham have had their own issues as an away side, taking only 10 of their 38 Premier League points to date as a visiting team. But so far most of their away defeats have come to opponents occupying higher rungs on the league ladder.
The Cottagers earned a 3-1 win at home in these sides' previous league meeting in early October.
Sheffield United
Two 5-0 losses to Aston Villa and Brighton followed by a 6-0 defeat to Arsenal provided Blades supporters with a miserable end to the winter that has resulted in some staggering numbers.
More than any other Premier League club, the Blades have shown an inability to do damage control on their home patch. While a -14.0 xG difference at home is the worst in the Premier League, it's still 16 goals better than their actualy -30 home goal difference. And in their last five league games at home, their 21 goals conceded have come on just 10.3 xG manufactured by opponents.
Perhaps it's down to Wilder's apparent tendency to tinker with more different kinds of formations when playing at home. While the Blades have switched up their shape at times on the road as well, they played five different systems in their five previous home matches.
In the most recent, Wilder was forced to shift out of a 4-5-1 after only 17 minutes. By then the Blades were already trailing 3-1 after Wilder had fielded an XI that included American Auston Trusty playing out of position at left back.
Fulham
Perhaps no one was more disappointed to see the March international break arrive than Fulham striker Rodrigo Muniz.
Injuries and international absences conspired to give the Brazilian his first extended run of starts in the Premier League this winter, and to say he siezed the opportunity would be an understatement.
The 22-year-old is now Fulham's top scorer with seven league goals, all coming since the start of February. And his form has been good enough to keep Chelsea loanee Armando Broja mostly out of the starting XI, as well as Raul Jimenez after the Mexican international completed his recovery from a hamstring injury.
The Cottagers have earned only two league away wins this season, but they've fared better in cup competition on the road, and you might consider their league travels to be front loaded.
Their last five away league fixtures should offer a chance to improve their record as visitors, with four of those five opponents sitting beneath Fulham in the table.
Sheffield United vs Fulham
Prediction
Fulham's away struggles have been largely defensive, and while they haven't faced a lot of away matches against teams truly in the relegation scrap, it's held true there as well. The Cottagers only have one clean sheet on the road to teams in the bottom half. It came on the opening weekend in a 1-0 win over an Everton side that failed to score despite creating 2.7 xG of chances.
Meanwhile, although Wilder's men have been battered and bruised recently, they have proven far more capable going forward against lower-half foes, either at home or on the road.
And when he's been healthy, loan signing Ben Brereton Diaz has been a difference-maker in that department. The Blades have scored two or more goals in four of his five appearances in all competitions. Two of the three aforementioned blowout defeats came without him in the squad.
So while it certainly feels counterintuitive given the recent form, the play here is for the Blades to score two or more at +210 odds and an implied 32.3% probability. It's cashed on four of 10 occasions when the Blades hosted bottom-half opponents and or Fulham traveled to such foes in the League this season.
And the Blades are still plenty capable of losing while scoring twice, making this better value than a double-chance wager on the home side.
