Luton Town vs Sheffield United Odds
| Luton Town Odds | +200 |
| Sheffield United Odds | +145 |
| Draw | +225 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +115 / -150 |
Sheffield United and Luton Town both look to build on rare positive results when they meet in a relegation six-pointer on Boxing Day at Bramall Lane.
The Blades very nearly took all three points from a trip to Villa Park on Friday night, taking a late lead through Cameron Archer before conceding an even later equalizer in stoppage time of a 1-1 draw.
The next day, Luton pulled off the biggest win of their first-ever Premier League season in a 1-0 triumph at home over Newcastle United on Andros Townsend's 25th-minute header.
Luton took four points from the teams' two meetings last year in the League Championship, winning 1-0 at Bramall Lane back in March after the sides split the points in a 1-1 draw in August of 2022.
Here is my Sheffield United vs Luton Town prediction.
Sheffield United
The Blades' were stubbornly defensively organized through the first 75 minutes of their draw at Aston Villa before coming alive in attack in dying stages.
All five of Sheffield United's shot attempts came between the 78th and the 87th minute, with Archer redirecting the last over the line following a cross from the byline on what was easily the highest-quality chance of the game for either side.
But a defense that had held so well to that point finally lapsed during an extended period of stoppage time. It was seven minutes into that stretch when Nicolo Zaniolo made a perfectly-timed run to head in Douglas Luiz's in-swinging cross and allowed Villa to escape with a hard-earned point.
The deep-lying posture was familiar for Blades fans — it was the fourth game this season in which they held 25% possession or less, and the third since Chris Wilder assumed the managerial reigns from Paul Heckingbottom. But the resolute defending in those circumstances hasn't been as consistent — while they allowed Villa only 0.9 xG, their three other opponents in those games had combined for 8.3 xG, six goals and three wins.
Sheffield United still sit last in the table but have taken four points from four games since the managerial change. Both the Blades' league wins have come in front of their home support by a single goal. And their only two games out-creating their opponents in xG have also been at Bramall Lane – a 1-0 win over Brentford and a 2-1 defeat to Manchester United.
Luton Town
Luton begin the holiday period three points and two places above Tuesday's opponents, and only two points back of Nottingham Forest and safety from relegation. And with a win over Newcastle, the Hatters finally reaped three points from the latest in a string of impressive home performances, in which they have not yet lost by more than a single goal.
It's been a different story whilst traveling, where they've dropped four games by multiple goals. Even their lone away league win was more fortunate than good, a 1-0 victory over an Everton side that had chance after chance but a miserable day trying to convert them.
And while Saturday's performance was a solid one, it also came in exceptionally emotional circumstances, the first game after captain Tom Lockyer suffered an on-field collapse in a game at Brighton that was eventually abandoned.
After riding that surge of sentiment to victory, now comes the tougher work of trying to solve the problem of making up for Lockyer's absence over the long term. This will only be the fourth match in which he hasn't captained the Hatters this Premier League season. They conceded four goals in the first two.
Sheffield United vs Luton Town
Prediction
This is a strange game to try and figure out because by definition one team will have to do something they've done very rarely this season: have the majority of possession.
The Blades and the Hatters have combined for just one league match in which either side has had more than half of the ball: Luton's 1-1 home draw against Wolves.
But despite that similarity there's one way in which these teams play very differently, and that's in how often they cross the ball. Luton are second in the league entering Boxing Day with 360 crosses attempted. The Blades are dead last with exactly half that.
And what happens more often when teams cross the ball? They earn more corners. Luton have generated 88 this season, good for 13th in the Prem, while Sheffield United are worst with 58.
So that's the play for me here — a corner match bet wager on the visitors to earn more. You can find it still as high as +135 odds and an implied 42.6% probability at the moment, and I might play it as low as +110 or so, not going lower than that only because Luton are the away side.
If someone made me play a side here, I'd probably take Luton on a draw no bet wager. I just think they're the more talented squad, though not by a margin large enough for that to be my primary wager.
