Sheffield United vs Tottenham Predictions, Expert Picks | Premier League Match Preview

Sunday, May 19

11 a.m. ET

Peacock

Sheffield United Odds	+650
Tottenham Odds	-300
Draw	+500
Over / Under	3.5  -163 / +130

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Sheffield United will have one last chance to give their home supporters something to cheer about in the Premier League when they host a Tottenham Hotspur side that needs a point to guarantee a fifth-place finish.

United’s return to the League Championship next season has been sealed for weeks, and their six-game losing streak is tied for their longest this season.

Meanwhile, Tottenham have also lost five of six to close the season and saw their faint Champions League qualification hopes erased in Tuesday’s home loss to Manchester City.

Spurs only narrowly defeated the Blades 2-1 in their previous league meeting in London in September.

Here is my Sheffield United vs Tottenham prediction.

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Sheffield United

For once last weekend, Sheffield United’s defense held relatively firm in a 1-0 defeat at Everton. But an attack that had been showing signs of life in March and April continued to look less threatening, as has been the pattern in recent weeks.

You may recall me backing the pattern of the Blades scoring two or more goals when winter loan signing Ben Brereton Diaz appears. And even now, the trend of the league’s worst side scoring twice in six of his 13 league games represents a dramatic improvement from their production when he’s not in the fold.

But that includes only one of the last six matches for the Blades, who have created less than 1.0 expected goals in three of those. And even more frustratingly, there appears to be a relationship between expected goals created and actual goals conceded, with Chris Wilder’s squad letting in three or more in each of the last four games in which they’ve generated at least 1.5 xG.

With Oli McBurnie's continued absence due to a thigh issue, Brereton Diaz and Cameron Archer will probably start together up front for a third straight match in a striking partnership that looks better on paper than it has performed so far.

In defense, Abdoulaye Doucoure's winner for Everton last week marked a Premier League-record 101st league goal conceded by the Blades, surpassing the 100 allowed by 1993-1994 Swindon Town.

Tottenham

Spurs’ late-season slide owes largely to a brutal stretch of the schedule, in which their five losses in six games have all come against the league’s current top seven.

That said, Tottenham are also still a part of that seven-team cohort, and they should expect to do better than zero points out of 15 possible when playing against those peers. 

Spurs probably deserved better out of the two home losses in that stretch to the two remaining title contenders. Their response after going behind to Manchester City in Tuesday’s 2-0 defeat was particularly impressive, and they only conceded a second on account of a somewhat unfortunate penalty.

That said, the twin absences of Richarlison and Timo Warner have probably made Spurs easier to defend. While team scoring leader Son Heung-Min is healthy and active, both Richarlison and Warner have taken chances at a higher rate of expected goals per 90 minutes. 

Son did what he very rarely does against City, failing to convert the best chance of the night on the break in the second half with a chance to level the match at 1-1.

Manager Ange Postecoglou may be most wary of how poorly his team's defense has traveled even against lesser opponents. Spurs have conceded multiple goals to their matches against bottom-half opponents five times. They've conceded more than 2.0 expected goals in four of those games.

Sheffield United vs Tottenham

Prediction

Yes, the Blades' attack has slowed in recent weeks, but their chance generation hasn't entirely, and they're playing a uniquely flawed defensive side given how heavily Spurs are favored.

And indeed, the Londoners will probably find a way to get at least the point they need to ensure their fifth-place finish, and very possibly three.

But you can't ignore that poor track record against a Blades attack that is still competent, even if the defense is utterly woeful. So I'm backing the Sheffield United team total one more time here, playing the hosts to give their supporters at least two goals to cheer about in their final Premier League game at +165 odds and an implied 37.7% probability.

Pick: Sheffield United Team Total Over 1.5 (+165 via FanDuel)