Our crew at The Action Network is back again this week in search of more hidden underdog gems that feature a ton of betting value across the European soccer landscape.
Handicappers Brett Pund, Jeremy Pond and BJ Cunningham have uncovered three European outfits they think can score huge victories at solid prices.
If you're new to this preview, our experts look for live underdogs at +200 odds or longer playing on the weekend around the world. Whether it's a match in the Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Premier League, Championship or even Major League Soccer, the goal is simple: Find a team that could deliver a winner.
That said, let's take a look at their top picks on the loaded docket.
| GAME | PICK | ODDS | DAY | TIME |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia vs. Mallorca | Mallorca | +425 | Saturday | 8 a.m. ET |
| Birmingham vs. Swansea | Swansea | +205 | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| Reims vs. Troyes | Troyes | +250 | Sunday | 9 a.m. ET |
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here
Brett Pund: Mallorca ML (+425) vs. Valencia
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 8 a.m. ET
Mallorca makes the trip across the Balearic Sea to take on Valencia for an early Saturday kickoff in La Liga action. And I think the oddsmakers have the home team way overrated in this matchup.
I don’t think Valencia deserves to be this big of a favorite over just about anyone, especially a side that's as evenly matched they are with Mallorca.
If you compare the teams across the board in different advanced metrics, the two clubs rank very closely in non-penalty expected goals (Valencia — 12th; Mallorca — 15th); shots per match (both tied for 11th); big scoring chances (tied for 8th); and shots allowed per match (Mallorca — 12th; Valencia — 14th).
You also have to think some regression should be coming soon for the hosts, who have 13 goals scored on just 9.7 expected goals.
I would make Mallorca closer to +250-280 underdogs in this game, but if you’re going to give me a price north of +400, I have to side with the value with the visitors to pull off a big victory.
Jeremy Pond: Swansea ML (+205) vs. Birmingham
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
Ah, yes. We head back to the same dry well known as the Championship. Finding a winner at +200 odds or higher is tough, but this is just getting ridiculous after having success in the English second division a campaign ago.
This time, we think we've found a gem in Swansea. The Swans, who sit 15th in the table, head to Birmingham for a battle of mediocre outfits. However, the visiting side is in much better form and enters this match fresh off a midweek upset win over West Bromwich Albion.
In contrast, Birmingham enters this much in terrible shape. The Blues, who settled for a scoreless draw with Huddersfield Town, are winless in their last seven league contests. Making matters worse is the club's utter stagnant offense, which has been shut out in six consecutive league fixtures.
Those brutal stats are enough for me to back Swansea at +205 odds via DraftKings to bag all three points on the road.
BJ Cunningham: Troyes ML (+250) vs. Reims
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Sunday | 9 a.m. ET
Stade de Reims has been better than they were last season, but that's not saying much. During the 2020-21 campaign, Reims finished in 14th place with a -8 goal differential, but had the second-fewest xG and the second-most xGA. Honestly, they really should have been relegated.
This season, they're only averaging 0.84 npxG per match, created only six big scoring chances and average only 10.13 shots per 90 minutes, all of which are in the bottom five of Ligue 1.
Troyes is having a difficult start to their campaign since promotion, but they've been much better in their last six matches. Since Sept. 12, Troyes has a +1.14 NPxGD, which is seventh best in the French top flight. They've also allowed only 5.49 NPxG in those six games, so I think Reims is going to have difficulty creating chances.
I have this match projected closer to Pick'em rather than Reims being favored, so I like Troyes to pull off the upset at +250 odds.
