The non-Premier League top European domestic leagues are sprinting toward the winter break with just two matches left until they break for the holiday. La Liga in Spain, Ligue 1 in France, Serie A in Italy and the Bundesliga in Germany all have two matches until their breaks and the first of those two matchweeks takes place this weekend.
German leaders Bayern will host Stuttgart in a difficult test given that Stuttgart is a legitimate top-three team. French leaders PSG will face off against a top contender on the road at Lille, while Barcelona and Atletico Madrid have difficult away days against quality sides Valencia and Athletic Bilbao.
Here are three of my favorite bets outside the Premier League in Europe's top five leagues this weekend:
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Soccer Predictions
| Augsburg Odds | +240 |
| Dortmund Odds | -110 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -225 / +175 |
If you just looked at the non-penalty xG difference in the Bundesliga this season, you'd make Augsburg a favorite in this match. You can't entirely throw out the priors of last season when Dortmund was a true top-three team in Germany and Augsburg had relegation level numbers. But if you were crafting a team designed to exploit Dortmund's weaknesses, it would look something like Augsburg. They are one of the most efficient and extreme counterattacking transition teams in Germany. That is a major weakness for a Dortmund defense that has no midfield ball stopping and is quite vulnerable on the break defensively.
Augsburg has been a plucky underdog this season because they are elite at set pieces on both ends of the pitch. They are top five in xG created and allowed per set piece, and Dortmund's set piece defense remains poor. You can keep expecting Dortmund to kick into gear and play better, but at some point, their defense is simply below average.
Not only did Dortmund have to play a midweek match against PSG, but they played down a man for 80 minutes and had a midweek match prior vs. Stuttgart. It's four matches in 12 days for them, while Augsburg had two in that time frame.
Dortmund has the clearly superior talent in every way, but the matchup and spot favor the home underdog.
Pick: Augsburg +0.5 (-110)
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| Bayern Munich Odds | -225 |
| Stuttgart Odds | +475 |
| Draw | +425 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -275 / +220 |
Bayern Munich is destroying the Bundesliga this year from an underlying numbers perspective. They have an absurd +2.16 xG difference per 90 minutes in Germany and there's only two teams that come within the realm of those absurd numbers. Stuttgart is one of them. Led by breakout striker Serhou Guirassy and reclamation project Deniz Undav, Stuttgart has a +1.49 xG difference per 90. Bayern closed -0.75 at home against Bayer Leverkusen and would have closed around -1 at home against Dortmund if you just flipped home field in that match.
Stuttgart has better underlying numbers than both and it's not as if their priors were that bad either. I know that Stuttgart had to win a relegation playoff last year, but they did so with a positive xG difference. This team has been good under the hood for a while and they're plenty live to give Bayern a scare.
Pick: Stuttgart +1.5 (-130 via ESPN Bet)
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| Lille Odds | +280 |
| PSG Odds | -120 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -150 / +120 |
PSG transformed the squad to move on from Neymar and Messi, but the same defensive issues don't really appear to be fixed at this point. The French champions are eighth in France in shots allowed per match and fifth in non-penalty xG per 90. Luis Enrique's system prioritizes stable possession and keeping the ball, but PSG is quite vulnerable when it doesn't have the ball.
There's no denying the attacking talent on the pitch at all times, but the midfield and lack of defensive work from the forward press leaves some real questions about whether they are overvalued by the market. Against a Lille side that is second in possession rate, second in pass completion rate and has excellent quality to play through an overrated PSG press, Les Dogues are undervalued to get a result at home.
By my numbers, Lille is the second-best team in France. I think they'll surprise PSG on Sunday afternoon.
