Soccer Picks & Predictions · Friday, March 27
For the remainder of the 2023-24 club soccer season, Action Network's soccer betting experts bring you odds, picks and predictions for a variety of games, including those across leagues that may not be frequently covered as extensively as the Champions League or Premier League.
Read on for Unexpected Goals, our daily soccer betting roundup.
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Lille vs Lens
Lens have really overachieved to be in the position that they are in right now and before the international break a lot of that negative regression happened against Nice.
It comes down to their defense, which has over-performed to an extreme level, just like they did last season. In Ligue 1, they have allowed 26 goals off of 36.7 expected goals. All of that is because of their goalkeeper Brice Samba, who is having a ridiculous shot stopping season, putting up a +8.8 post shot xG +/-. However, as we know with statistical regression, teams will always level out towards their underlying numbers and the same can be said for Lille.
Lille have been going through a difficult run at the moment, as they’ve only picked up eight points from their last six matches, but they have a +1.7 xGD during that time frame. They also have the second-best expected goal differential in Ligue 1 since the beginning of December because of how good they are out of possession.
Lille are super aggressive when the press out of their 4-2-4 shape with the purpose of forcing teams into sending long balls up the pitch. The reason they want teams to do that is because their center backs are very good at winning aerial duels, which allows Lille to win second balls. When teams do try to play shorter passes, Lille have been outstanding at forcing high turnovers and disrupting their build up play allowing the third lowest short pass completion rate and have also have the most shots off of forced high turnovers in Ligue 1.
Lille are also a really good team in possession and like to utilize a slow build up to draw opponents into pressing them, similar to Brighton, and it works. Lille have the second-best field tilt and third-best build up completion percentage in France. That buildup structure has led them to creating the second most non-penalty expected goals since the calendar turned to 2024.
I have Lille projected as a -148 favorite, so I like the value on them at +115.
Pick: Lille ML (+112 via DraftKings)
