Southampton vs Man United Odds
| Southampton Odds | +350 |
| Man United Odds | -143 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -163 / +130 |
Southampton's search for their first Premier League points since promotion back to the top flight continues Saturday when they host a Manchester United side that lost consecutive games to stumble into the international break.
The Saints' start to the season feels a little similar to how Burnley began 2023-2024, playing at times proactive and possession-based football but with nothing to show for it. The Saints have considerably out-possessed all three of their opponents but have scored only once on their three league defeats, that goal coming in a 3-1 loss at Brentford heading into the break.
But they may feel United are vulnerable after the Red Devils have failed to look convincing through three games. The last was perhaps the most painful, a 3-0 defeat to a visiting Liverpool side that was well deserving of its victory.
The Saints are winless in the last 15 fixtures between these sides, a stretch that dates back to 2016, but they have drawn seven of those.
Let's get into my Southampton vs Man United prediction.
Southampton
The Saints were the Premier League landing spot for Ben Brereton Diaz and Cameron Archer after both men proved themselves as competent if unspectacular Premier League scorers at Sheffield United last season.
Archer has only played 10 minutes after signing on a permanent transfer at the summer deadline from Aston Villa (who loaned him to the Blades last season). But he did strike for a brace in the Saints' 5-3 League Cup win over Cardiff City in his first start for his new club.
Less encouragingly, Brereton Diaz's considerable cool off at the end of his time in Sheffield has continued on the South Coast, where he is still awaiting his first goal.
Then there's Adam Armstrong, who has yet to prove he can turn sustained success in front of goal in the second tier into a respectable level of production in the top flight.
He's also still scoreless while leading Southampton with 0.8 expected goals' worth of chances so far. And he's scored at least 0.41 goals per 90 minutes in each of his previous three Championship seasons, against only 0.13 in both of his previous EPL campaigns.
Man United
The feel around Man United is one of a decided lack of composure. So far the Red Devils have generated nine chances with at least a 0.25 xG value across their three league games. Of those, the post-shot xG value has been equal or lower in all nine, and four of the last five weren't directed on target.
The silver lining is that it suggests the results have been a bit worse than the quality of the performances. And ten Hag could also be on the verge of a significant squad change after a rough start for Brazilian holding midfielder Casemiro.
The 32-year-old has had a rough start to the new campaign, and against Liverpool struggled so acutely he was taken off at halftime. Summer deadline signing Manuel Uguarte was signed to bolster that holding midfield role, and he could make his debut if he can overcome a mild illness and trans-Atlantic travel after featuring for Uruguay in World Cup Qualifying.
The 20-year-old Alejandro Garnacho — whose acrobatic volley against Everton last winter was the 2023-2024 Premier League goal of the season — has been his side's most threatening player, with 1.4 xG generated in just over 120 minutes. He's still awaiting his first goal of the new campaign, though he does have one of his side's two assists.
Southampton vs Man United
Prediction
Given how both teams set up tactically, it's understandable that the betting market is favoring a higher goals total.
But while three goals or more is perhaps a likely outcome, it's a lot harder to envision the kind of match that leads to five or more goals, given that both teams still have a lot of questions and inconsistencies in attack right now.
So the value here might be on a goal-bands wager on 3-4 total goals at +140 and an implied 41.7% probability. That's a major improvement from the -170 number and 63% implied probability on the straight over bet, and worth the added risk.
It's also a wager that cashed above that trend line in Man United games last season: It was 18-20 (47.4%) overall in league games, 9-10 (47.4%) in their away games, 9-10 (47.4%) in their games against opponents finishing in the bottom half of the title and 5-5 (50%) in games against such foes on the road.
It's also cashed 50% of the time across these teams' six games so far in the new season.
