Southampton vs. Man United Odds
| Southampton Odds | +330 |
| Man United Odds | -130 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-170 / +138) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 7:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | USA Network | fuboTV |
| Odds updated as of Saturday morning via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Manchester United looks to build off its win against Liverpool when it travels to the Saint Mary's Stadium on Saturday to take on Southampton.
The Saints are off to a decent start and pulled off a dramatic, second-half comeback last time out to earn a 2-1 win against Leicester City. Southampton is pegged as a bottom-half-of-the-table side, but did give Manchester United some trouble last season, earning 1-1 draws in both meetings.
As for the Red Devils, they're finally on the board after losing their opening matches to Brentford and Brighton & Hove Albion, grabbing a 2-1 win against Liverpool. It's also likely Casemiro will make his debut, but the reality for United is that at its current state, this is a really tricky match.
Southampton
The Saints haven't been as bad as they've shown so far on the defensive front. Yes, they've allowed seven goals in three matches, but that was only off 3.9 expected goals, per fbref.com.
Southampton plays a frenetic pressing style under manager Ralph Hasenhüttl that can be successful against the right opponent. Last year, the club finished the season sixth in PPDA, fourth in pressure success rate and second in ball recoveries. That will lend itself well playing against a United side that has struggled to play through pressure under manager Erik ten Hag's new system.
Calamity at the back for Manchester United as Mathias Jensen pounces on the mistake and doubles Brentford's lead!
📺: @nbc, @NBCUniverso & @peacockTV#MyPLMorning | #BREMUNpic.twitter.com/5ypEKBODAG
— NBC Sports Soccer (@NBCSportsSoccer) August 13, 2022
The Saints really wasn't that bad offensively last season, averaging 1.15 NPxG per match, which was ninth in the Premier League. They also averaged the eighth-most shots per 90 minutes and created the sixth-most big scoring chances.
So, facing a United defense that was 13th in the English top flight in xGA, the Southampton should be able to create something of value.
By The Numbers
- 37.3 — Percentage of Southampton's pressure success rate through three matches, which is the second-best mark in the Premier League.
- 44 — Number of big scoring chances the Saints created last season, which was sixth in the league.
Manchester United
This betting line is too high for the Red Devils at their current state. Yes, they were good against the Reds, capitalizing off their foe's high line. They were able to get in behind and finished off a few chances.
Yet overall for the match, United was poor at playing through pressure. Without Thiago, Liverpool had a 39.8% pressure success rate and a PPDA of 7.2, plus only forced eight high turnovers against the Red Devils.
Through their first three matches, the Saints had a 37.3% pressure success rate and has forced the fourth-most high turnovers.
Man Utd 2 : 1 Liverpool
▪ xG: 1.9 – 1.48
▪ xThreat: 0.79 – 2.12
▪ Possession: 30.2% – 69.8%
▪ Field Tilt: 26.8% – 73.2%
▪ Def Line Height: 35.0 – 41.4#msbot_eng#eplpic.twitter.com/wokAyIAIYz— markstats bot (@markstatsbot) August 22, 2022
Also, can we talk about how bad United has been away from home? The Red Devils' last win away from Old Trafford came way back on Feb. 20 against Leeds United. They’ve gone eight consecutive matches without a win away from Old Trafford.
Not only have they not won away in those eight games, but they’ve scored two goals off 5.1 xG in the process. Their final xGDiff away from home last season was -7.4 overall. That’s bad.
United, which was also 13th in big scoring chances allowed a season ago, has already conceded five in their first three matches, while Southampton was sixth in big scoring chances last campaign and created three in their first three league contests.
By The Numbers
- 2 — Number of goals United has scored in their last eight away matches.
- 39.8% — Liverpool's pressure success rate against Manchester United last time out was this subpar percentage.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Manchester United opened at -105 odds on the moneyline and has been bet up to -130 at most books, despite the fact it lost on xG to Liverpool. That creates a perfect opportunity to fade the Red Devils in a letdown spot.
I only have United projected at +129, so I love the value on Southampton getting +0.5 goals at +110 odds via the Asian Handicap as my top pick.
The Pick: Southampton +0.5 (+110)
