Spain vs England Odds, Spain – England Pick
| Spain Odds | +145 |
| England Odds | +240 |
| Draw | +175 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +162 / -200 |
It's a heavyweight clash in the Euro final as Spain takes on England.
Spain came from behind to beat France 2-1 and secure a spot here to potentially win their fourth Euro title all time. It's been an impressive tournament so far for Luis de la Fuente's team who has taken down two of the tournament favorites on their way to the final. They have showed resiliency, but also some vulnerabilities in their defense, which could be exploited by England.
England is back in the Euro final and football may finally be coming home. Gareth Southgate's side has largely been poor throughout this tournament, but have the opportunity to win their first major international trophy since the 1966 World Cup. Ollie Watkins was the late hero against the Netherlands to snatch a 2-1 victory, which shows the depth and talent that England has.
Spain
That is now two straight matches where Spain has taken a lead, sat back trying to defend and hasn’t done a great job. Against Germany, they conceded 2.1 expected goals and 45 penalty box touches. Against France, they conceded 1.5 expected goals and 29 penalty box touches. If it wasn’t for a Lamine Yamal wonderstrike from outside the box, the match against France could have gone very differently. In the end, even though they scored twice, they only created 0.7 expected goals and had just 10 touches in France’s penalty area.
It’s pretty clear now that Spain isn’t an elite defensive team playing in a passive defensive block. They have conceded three goals this tournament off of 6.2 expected as Unai Simon has run incredibly hot in net. Spain is due for some regression defensively and if they continue to sit and not press intensely, it’s only going to make them more and more vulnerable.
They may very well control a majority of the possession in this match, but Southgate has set England up really well defensively. They showed the Dutch just how difficult they are to play through.
The key for England is to not let Rodri receive the ball with ease and allow him to pick out whatever pass he wants. Whoever England plays alongside Declan Rice or Jude Bellingham has to be able to press Rodri every single time he receives the ball and make someone else from Spain beat you.
England
What was encouraging about England against Netherlands, at least in the first half, was their commitment to playing through the middle of the pitch. Kieran Trippier would often push high up the pitch, which allowed Phil Foden to play more of a central role with Bellingham operating in the left half space.
England was often trying to get four or five guys in the middle of the pitch. Even when they weren’t able to play through the middle, it did leave Bukayo Saka isolated out wide. When the double team came, he was able to find the open man, which often times was Foden, who had his best match of the tournament.
The key for England in this match is going to be how solid and compact they are when defending in their own final third. Spain has been overloading the middle a lot to isolate Nico Williams and Yamal out wide. Kyle Walker can shut down Wiliams, but Marc Guehi and Rice are going to have to provide help on Yamal. England is well set up to do this though as they haven’t allowed anybody in regular time to create over one expected goal against them. Their defensive set up against the Netherlands to stop their ball progression was outstanding in the first half, as they forced them into a lot of long balls, which they won at a high rate.
England's defense has been outstanding this entire tournament. They're very well versed in playing a mid-to-low defensive structure to deny Spain passing lanes or preventing them from carrying the ball into the box. Throughout this tournament they have only allowed 0.79 npxG per 90 minutes, which is third lowest in the competition along with the fifth fewest penalty box touches.
Spain vs England
Prediction
Spain is most likely to control a majority of the possession in this match, but we have now seen them go up against two elite defensive sides. In regular time, they weren't able to create two combined expected goals in those two matches. Southgate, for all of the criticism he's received this tournament, has set England up really well defensively.
Even though England hasn't been great offensively throughout this tournament, they possess the attacking talent and press-resistant players to give Spain's defense a lot of problems.
We've seen the problems with Spain's passive defensive structure. If they sit back, England should be able to create a couple high quality chances — and if they press, England has the capability to play right through them.
Everyone is going to be flocking to Spain because of recency bias, but England played their best match of the tournament against the Netherlands and I think are undervalued here against Spain. I like the value on England to lift the trophy at +125.
