Stuttgart and Sparta Prague meet for a crucial Champions League match.
Stuttgart put in a valiant effort against Real Madrid in their first Champions League match, but they ultimately ended up losing 3-1 on the road. Their form has been up and down in the Bundesliga, as they've only won two of their first five matches with the defense really struggling. With the new Champions League format, it's matches like these that Stuttgart have to win if they want to progress to the knockout round.
Sparta Prague got a huge win in their first Champions League match, beating Salzburg 3-0 at home. The champions of the Czech Republic were very impressive, coming through qualifying to get to the Champions League by winning all but one of their matches. They've been in great form to begin the season domestically as well, so they will be live underdogs in this match.
Here is my Stuttgart vs. Sparta Prague prediction.
Stuttgart vs. Sparta Prague Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Stuttgart Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -255 | 2.5 -275o / +225u | -255 |
| Sparta Prague Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +180 | 2.5 -275o / +225u | +600 |
- Stuttgart vs. Sparta Prague moneyline odds: Stuttgart -255, Sparta Prague +600, Draw +450
- Stuttgart vs. Sparta Prague over/under: 2.5 goals (over -275, under +225)
- Stuttgart vs. Sparta Prague pick: Over 3.5
I am backing the Over 3.5 in Sparta Prague vs. Stuttgart.
Stuttgart Preview
Vfb Stuttgart may have lost their opening match to Real Madrid, but they hammered the defending champions in their own building for the first 30 minutes of the match. That is because Stuttgart have been difficult to face in Germany because of the variability in how they set up tactically.
Stuttgart use a ton of different build up formations depending on the opponent they are going to face. When they are building up from deep they are often using a 4-2-4 shape with the two forwards dropping deep to pull the opposing center backs with them to create an over the top ball to the wingers, who are making inverted runs.
Stuttgart lost their star striker Serhou Guirassy this summer to Dortmund. He scored 28 goals domestically last season. They did retain Deniz Undav, who tallied 18 goals, and bought Ermedin Demirović from Augsburg to help their attack from completely falling off.
The biggest concern for Stuttgart right now is their defense. Through their first five Bundesliga matches they have conceded in each one of them and are allowing 1.55 xG per 90 minutes. The reason for that is two fold. First, their two starting center backs from last year's team, Waldemar Anton and Hiroki Ito, left in the summer. They haven't done a good job at replacing them. Secondly, their press hasn't been as effective as it was last year. Real Madrid were building out very wide, which was creating a lot of space in the middle when Real Madrid would beat the first line of pressure.
Sparta Prague Preview
Sparta Prague are under a new manager, but things are not going to change because Lars Friis was promoted from being the assistant under Brian Priske to being the full time manager. That means Sparta Prague's style of play isn't going to change a whole lot. In competitions like this, they aren't going to be as aggressive out of possession, but they are going to press out of their "Zonal Man to Man" system.
What that means is they will set up to press out of a 4-3-3 and once the ball goes to one area of the pitch, everyone goes man to man in your zone. While it can be effective at times, it does leave them exposed if you are able to beat their pressure. Below is a scenario where Salzburg beat the first two lines and in turn had a 5 v 4 break on Sparta Prague's back line.
They were in the Europa League last season and played some pretty difficult competition. They hung with and eventually took out a really good Galatasaray team in the Europa League Knockout playoffs, creating 4.1 expected goals over the two legs. They then went on to concede a combined 11 goals to Liverpool, but there aren't a whole lot of differences in terms of aggression in possession between Galatasaray, Liverpool and Stuttgart.
Stuttgart vs Sparta Prague Prediction
I think this match has the potential to get off the rails with how both of these teams are going to set up. Vfb Stuttgart haven't been able to stop anybody this season, as they are not only feeling the loss of their two star center backs, but are also having some structural issues with their press that Sparta Prague can exploit.
On the flip side, Sparta Prague's defensive set up has consistently exploited when they have to play better competition. Against Liverpool and Galatasaray they conceded a combined 15 goals and given the way Stuttgart are creating chances right now, averaging 2.3 xG per 90 minutes, they should be able to put the ball in the back of the net multiple times.
I have 3.8 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the over.
Pick: Over 3.5 (+100 via ESPNBet)
How to Watch Champions League: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Location: | MHP Arena, Stuttgart, Germany |
| Date: | Tuesday, October 1 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12:45 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Paramount+ / YouTube TV, Fubo |
