Euro 2024 continues on Sunday, June 30 as we continue with the knockout stage.
Like World Cup 2022, I'll have projections for every game, along with analysis and any potential bets that result from showing projection value.
My projections simulate each game 250,000 times and are powered by my colleague BJ Cunningham's offensive and defensive power ratings for each team. Using his power ratings, I use something called diagonal-inflated bivariate poisson to simulate the scoring distribution for each game.
Let’s dive into my Euro 2024 match projections for Sunday's England – Slovakia and Spain – Georgia games.
Euro 2024 Picks, Projections: Sunday, June 30
England – Slovakia, 12 p.m. ET
England are 86.2% favorites to advance, including 73.6% favorites to win in 90 minutes. Throughout the tournament, Slovakia's offensive rating has gotten worse while England's defensive rating has gotten better.
I see some thin value on Slovakia unders, but on the other side of the ball, England's offensive rating decline is offset by Slovakia's defensive rating getting worse.
My simulations are showing some thin value on England overs, and by combining these factors, I show value on England.
Pick: England -1.5 (+136 via FanDuel)
Spain – Georgia, 3 p.m. ET
Spain are 91.9% favorites to advance, including 83.1% favorites to win in 90 minutes. Despite advancing to the knockout stages, Georgia's defensive rating has actually gotten worse, thanks to an average of 2.62 xGA per game.
Spain's offensive power rating has gotten better thanks to an average of 1.91 xG per game against solid defenses in Italy and Croatia. As a result, I'm showing some value on Spain to score.
