Manchester United vs. Newcastle Odds
| Manchester United Odds | -375 |
| Newcastle Odds | +1050 |
| Draw | +480 |
| Over/Under | 3 (-115/-104) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 2 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
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Manchester United looks to keep pace with Manchester City when it hosts Newcastle at Old Trafford on Sunday.
Manchester United has been on a weird run of form, as it drew with 19th-place West Brom last weekend but took it to Real Sociedad in the Europa League on Thursday, 3-0.
However, the Red Devils have picked up only one win in their last four matches in the Premier League, so they are desperate to get all three points at home against a bottom-half-of-the-table side like Newcastle.
Newcastle is going through a really tough run of form and now finds itself somewhat in the relegation battle.
It's only six points above 18th-place Fulham for the last relegation spot, and Fulham has a favorable matchup at home against Sheffield United this weekend.
So, if the Magpies are not careful they could be in the drop zone before April.
Manchester United
Despite being in second place in the Premier League table, Manchester United's expected goals results do match up with its actual results.
The Red Devils have only the fourth-best expected goal differential and fourth in expected points. The reason for that is that they've been a bit fortunate in front of net, as they've scored 50 goals on the season but created only 42.08 expected goals.
In fact, they only created 0.61 xG against West Brom last Sunday, and the Baggies have the worst defense in the Premier League.
Defensively, Manchester United has been solid this year, allowing only 1.18 xG per match. That number has only gotten better as of late, as it's really turned up the defensive pressure over the last six matches, allowing only 0.92 xG per match.
The Red Devils defeated Newcastle, 4-1, at St. James' Park back in October and allowed the Magpies to create only 0.97 xG, so I think they should be able to keep clean sheet against Newcastle, which is going to be without its main goal scoring threat.
Newcastle
The Magpies are starting to look like the team from last year that finished with the worst expected goal differential in the Premier League.
They've lost seven of their last nine games and are really struggling to generate high quality chances in front of net. Newcastle is only averaging an abysmal 0.74 xG per match from open play, which is one of the lowest marks in the Premier League.
To make matters worse, it's going to be without its only goal-scoring threat, as star striker Callum Wilson is going to be on the sidelines.
Bruce on other injuries: "Manquillo is responding well to treatment. Callum (Wilson) needs rest. Fab Schar has had his operation. Fede (Fernandez) trained yesterday for the first time and we hope he'll be ready for Wolves but not Man United unfortunately." #nufc
— Lee Ryder (@lee_ryder) February 19, 2021
Wilson has a 0.58 xG per 90 minutes scoring rate and has been involved in 15 of the team's 24 goals.
In the three matches that Wilson has missed this season, the Magpies are creating only 0.52 xG per match. So, it's safe to say Newcastle's offense is heavily reliant on Wilson.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Without Wilson in the lineup, I don't see how Newcastle is going to put the ball in the back of the net.
On the flip side, Manchester United is due for some negative regression on offense. Additionally, the Red Devils did play a Europa League match against Real Sociedad on Thursday, so I'd imagine they will be a bit tired coming into this match.
Since I have only 2.63 goals projected for this match, I do see some value on under three goals at -104 odds.
Pick: Total Under 3 Goals (-104)
