Arsenal vs. Wolves Odds
| Arsenal Odds | +108 [BET NOW] |
| Wolves Odds | +285[BET NOW] |
| Draw | +225[BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+133/-167)[BET NOW] |
| Time | 2:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSN |
Odds updated as of Sunday at 12 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
My model projects Arsenal as a bottom half team in the Premier League following their fortunate tie with Leeds United last week.
Sunday, Wolves travel to North London to take on the Gunners, who currently sit in 12th place in the table and are struggling to generate much of anything going forward.
Arsenal
Manager Mikel Arteta moved striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang back to the center of the Gunners’ attack following the international break. The experiment of moving him off the left flank did not work, as the Gunners were held scoreless vs. Leeds.
The result is that Arsenal had 0.71 xG, were outshot 25-9 and Aubameyang managed three low-quality shots in the game. The Gunners have not scored from open play in the league since Oct. 4.
Since then, they notched a win over Manchester United on a penalty, and deservedly lost three of their other four matches. They probably should have lost all four if Leeds had taken any of its solid chances.
Arsenal’s underlying numbers don’t inspire much optimism going forward, but the market keeps hanging these numbers that don’t make much sense to me or my model. Their chance conversion rate, which was the highest in the league since the restart, has predictably regressed.
They’re too slow in the build up to attacks and only have two players who can carry the ball forward in Bukayo Saka and Nicolas Pépé. The latter got a red card against Leeds and is suspended.
Wolves
Wolves and Southampton played to a 1-1 draw that felt like every Wolves match of the last two years. A painfully boring first half that ended goalless, and a wildly entertaining back and forth second half that had multiple chances.
In the end, a 1-1 draw was a fair result, and Wolves’ lack of attacking options is showing so far this season.
They have only generated 8.5 xG so far this season, which is the third lowest total in the entire league. The defense has improved in recent matches and has allowed less than 1.1 xGA in all but one match of their last five. But at what cost? Wolves need to start finding more goals and shots in their team if they want any chance of making it back into Europe next season.
It’s a sign of how little respect the market has for these two attacks that the total sits at 2.25. At 2.5, I’d look to play an under here, but the market is finally adjusting to Arsenal’s recent form and Wolves’ defense has proven itself for multiple years.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Arsenal continue to be shown respect in the market like the Arsenal of old. And this is not the Arsenal of old. They haven’t improved at all in the last year under Arteta, and the #FadeArsenal bandwagon is in full effect until the club’s performances show any signs of life.
So far, the Gunners are still relying on that opening day win against lowly Fulham to show what they can be.
Otherwise, it hasn’t been much. I’ll take Wolves to get at least a point. My numbers show their biggest edge of the entire season thus far on this match, and project Wolves as slightly better even when factoring in home field.
Pick: Wolves +0.5 (-130)
