Atalanta vs. Juventus Odds
| Atalanta Odds | +123 |
| Juventus Odds | +205 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-159 / +128) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 9 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds as of Saturday afternoon via DraftKings | |
Three teams have started to separate themselves from the pack at the top of Serie A, based on performances and expected goals. AC Milan have cooled off from their hot start, and since then, Inter Milan, Juventus and Atalanta have established themselves as the three best in the Italian top flight.
Despite this, there are still four teams playing for the final three Champions League places behind league leaders Inter in the standings. Juventus and Atalanta will face off on Sunday in Bergamo, where the winner will firmly entrench their place in the Serie A top four, and the loser will be looking over their shoulder at close, chasing Napoli in the standings.
Juve and Atalanta played a thrilling 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture in December, and the two sides will meet again in the Coppa Italia Final in May. Both have underachieved in competing for the league title, but both have a chance to make a statement to the other on Sunday ahead of that final next month.
Atalanta
Atalanta hasn't been as consistently dominant in the expected goals created as past seasons because they've suffered short periods of ineffective attacking play that have dragged down their season-long numbers. By the numbers, Atalanta is the best attacking team in Italy and has been for three years. This year, they're running about even with Juventus and Inter.
But when La Dea is firing and has its best attackers fit, they're as good as anyone in the world up front, and that's the case entering Sunday's clash. Duvan Zapata netted twice in Atalanta's win against Fiorentina last Sunday. As a unit, they've averaged 2.06 xGF in their last five Serie A matches and totaled more than two in four of those matches.
In that same five-game stretch across all competitions, their defense has also struggled to keep teams out. Atalanta will probably have more of the ball in this match at home, with Juventus looking to directly counter through Alvaro Morata down the middle. Atalanta's defense has always been vulnerable to direct attacks because of its man marking and aggressive, overlapping center backs style.
Juventus
When Atalanta is forced to spend time defending in and around their own penalty, it's when mistakes tend to happen with Gian Piero Gasperini's side. Giving away big scoring chances and penalties is often Atalanta's biggest issue, and Juventus is poised to exploit this.
Atalanta's center backs can be prone to mistakes when pressed because so much of the league doesn't apply ball pressure at high rates, but Juventus is fourth in passes per defensive action. Juve is also third in passes completed within the opponents' penalty area, which could cause issues for the Atalanta defense.
Over the course of the season, the Old Lady has the fewest expected goals allowed in the division. But COVID-19 issues at the back with Leonardo Bonucci and Merih Demiral could impact their defensive stature. They're both cleared now but may not start since they're recovering. In its last three matches, Juve has allowed 3.4 xGA to an average slate of opponents.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Juventus and Atalanta have similar offensive profiles and both are clearly amongst the top three offenses in the league.
This game should be just as open as the last encounter between these two sides, which featured 3.8 expected goals and only ended 1-1 because of excellent goalkeeping and poor finishing. At this point in the season, a draw doesn't do much for either team, as they'll want all three points to hold off the chasing pack of Roma, Napoli and Lazio behind them for the Champions League spots. While next month's Coppa Italia will likely be much cagier because of the stakes, my projections put this game at 3.14 goals, and I like over 2.75 at -125 or better or over 3 at plus money.
Pick: Over 2.75 goals (-125 or better) or Over 3 goals (+100 or better)
