Switzerland vs Germany Preview | Euro 2024 Picks & Predictions

Sunday, June 23

3 p.m. ET

FS1

Switzerland Odds	+440
Germany Odds	-155
Draw	+285
Over / Under	2.5  -125 / +100

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Switzerland need just a point to secure a second-place finish in Group A and qualification for the next round when they meet neighbors Germany, who have secured advancement already, in both teams' group finale on Sunday.

The Swiss could've progressed for certain with a victory on match day 2, but they were pegged back by a much-improved display from Scotland in a 1-1 draw. Even so, they have a major edge in the race for that second spot, since the Scots would need to defeat Hungary, see Switzerland lose and make up a hefty goal difference.

Germany saw off Hungary 2-0 in an incrementally more difficult triumph than their 5-1 thumping of the Scots. But being the host nation has a way of pushing sides to more aggressive performances even when they can afford to play conservatively.

These teams last met behind closed doors in a pair of UEFA Nations League A games in 2020, with both matches finishing level; a 1-1 draw in Switzerland and a 3-3 affair in Germany.

Let's get into my Switzerland vs Germany preview.

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Switzerland

Xherdan Shaqiri has disappointed in the latest chapter of his club career, scoring only 14 goals across two-and-half seasons with the Chicago Fire in MLS. But the former Liverpool man continues to shine in a Switzerland shirt.

The 32-year-old's sumptuous, one-time strike of an equalizer against Scotland is a goal-of-the-tournament candidate and will rank among the best of his career. And while he's not always a 90-minute player, he'll be difficult for Murat Yakin to omit from the XI after scoring in his last three starts and five of his last seven.

His 59th-minute removal against Scotland brought a clear shift in the run of play. Scotland had three shot attempts prior to his exit and nine once he departed, though only Grant Henley's header off the woodwork had real menace.

While the Swiss aren't one of the giants of European football, they have a record of sustained success in the group phase of major tournaments, reaching the knockout portions in five consecutive chances between the World Cup and Euros since 2014.  They're on an eight-game unbeaten run in match day 3 of those tournaments.

Germany

The Germans still have something to play for in terms of possible next opponent. The winner of Group A will face the runner-up from Group C (Denmark are currently second). The runner-up faces the runner-up from Group B (currently Italy).

But manager Julian Nagelsman will probably take at least the basic cautions of limiting the workload for older players and avoiding any potential yellow card suspensions.

The latter could potentially rule out 75% of his back four, with Max Middlestadt, Jonathan Tah and Antonio Rudiger all carrying bookings into match day 3. Holding midfielder Robert Andrich is also in that category.

Further up the pitch, there's plenty of potential talent to rotate without sacrificing much quality. Leroy Sane, Niclas Fullkrug, Pascal Gross and Thomas Muller are among those only to appear as substitutes so far.

Switzerland vs Germany

Prediction

Both sides would probably accept a draw if offered to them before the match started. Germany would be assured of finishing top of the group, and Switzerland would lock in second. So there's probably value there, since a level game in the second-half isn't as likely to bring teams forward late.

However, I wouldn't expect that dynamic early with a Nagelsmann-coached team. Throw in possible changes at the back, and the best way to target the draw is tying it to an over 1.5 at +380 and an implied 20.8% probability.

Also, while Switzerland "need" the result more than Germany entering Sunday, that could change during the match. While Hungary come into their game against Scotland without a point, they are slight favorites. And if they are leading or level in the second half, Switzerland's result becomes a bit of a moot point.

That scenario means there may be value on a wager on more goals in the first half at +220 odds and an implied 31.3% probability.

One caveat to note. While I like both bets, they're based on potential scenarios amid uncertainty, so I wouldn't use a significant portion of your bankroll on them.

Picks: Draw and over 1.5, same-game parlay (+380 via BetMGM), More goals in the first half (+220 via FanDuel)