Switzerland vs Italy Preview | Switzerland – Italy Prediction & Picks

Saturday, June 29

12 p.m. ET

FS1

Switzerland Odds	+245
Italy Odds	+140
Draw	+190
Over / Under	1.5  -185 / +145

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Let's dive into the Switzerland vs Italy odds and make a pick and prediction in our Euro 2024 betting preview for Saturday, June 29.

The Euro 2024 round of 16 opens on Saturday with an intriguing clash between one of Europe's traditional powers and one of its most consistent performers when Switzerland face Italy.

The Italians are the defending champions, but they are also undergoing a generational change and required Mattia Zaccagni's very late equalizer against Croatia to progress from the group stage. Add in a failure to qualify for the last two World Cups, and this is not the perennial contender most of us know.

Meanwhile, the Swiss program is among Europe's most consistent in the last couple decades, qualifying for six consecutive major tournaments and reaching the knockout phase in the previous five. But none of those tournament runs lasted beyond the quarterfinals, and only one got that far.

You may remember Italy hammering Switzerland 3-0 in their Euro 2020 group stage. But since then the sides have played a pair of draws in 2022 World Cup Qualifying that helped the Swiss qualify at the Italians' expense.

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Switzerland Picks

Switzerland's group phase performance was impressive because it demonstrated an ability to earn results either as a team that dictates the game or one that counterpunches.

Murat Yakin's side was at its best in the opener against Hungary, taking a 2-0 lead at half and sealing the game late through Breel Mbolo's stoppage-time goal on the counter.

But a 1-1 draw against Germany was impressive in a different way. While Dan Ndoye's opening goal came against the run of play, the Swiss defended their lead resolutely while also offering a credible threat attacking threat for most of the 90 minutes. Nicolas Fullkrug pulled Germany level late, but the gap of about 1.0 in expected goals owed more to Germany chasing the game than any lack of Swiss quality.

This group's only quarterfinal appearance in their last Euro appearance came after dumping France out of the tournament on penalties following a thrilling 3-3 draw in the second round.

Italy Picks

Italy's dramatic late show against Croatia was the time of moment that can inject a previously underperforming team with the self-confidence to make a deep run. And frankly, that had better be the case or else this version of the Azzurri won't be in Germany much longer.

Mattia Zaccagni's strike at the death snapped a scoreless stretch of 253 minutes for Luciano Spalleti's group, during which they frankly didn't deserve to find the net.

After their two early goals against Albania, the Azzurri created only 2.02 expected goals over that barren stretch. More damningly, Spalleti's side hasn't created a single "big chance" across those 90 minutes, defined as one with 30% or greater chance of conversion.

In particular, it's been a tournament to forget for Atalanta's Gianlucca Scamacca, who has only generated 0.2 total xG across 161 minutes of play at his center forward role.

Switzerland vs Italy

Prediction

The first thing you might notice looking at the three-way line is how expensive the draw is. Welcome to the Euro knockout phase.

While +190 odds and an implied 34.5% probability might feel high, the 90-minute draw has cashed in 44.6% of knockout phase matches since the tournament expanded first to 16 teams in 1996 and then 24 teams in 2016. That includes eight out of 15 games in Euro 2020.

Add Italy's struggles to create chances and these teams' recent history, and it's the draw that probably has the moneyline value.

However, the second part of the equation is the installation of Italy as a favorite when nothing we've seen so far in this tournament suggests that's reasonable. The Swiss are a seasoned tournament team and, aside from goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma, this Italian group is unproven at this stage. Maybe the Swiss shouldn't be favorites. But I'm unconvinced they should be decisive underdogs on a draw-no-bet line.

So I'm backing the draw on a Switzerland-no-bet wager at +105 odds and an implied 48.8% probability. Your wager is backing the idea that in a world where only the draw or the Italy win are possible, the draw occurs 48.8% of the time. A Swiss win voids the bet.

You won't be able to find this market at most books. But you can simulate it by determining the total stake you want to wager, betting enough on the Switzerland ML so that the payout is equal to the total stake, and betting the remainder of your predetermined stake on the ML draw.

Pick: Draw – Switzerland No Bet (+105 via BetMGM)