Switzerland vs. Spain Odds
| Switzerland Odds | +500 |
| Spain Odds | -159 |
| Draw | +285 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-106 / -115) |
| Day | Time | Friday | 12 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN | fuboTV |
| Odds updated Thursday afternoon via DraftKings. | |
The Euro 2020 quarterfinal round opens Friday with an intriguing matchup featuring Switzerland taking on Spain in St. Petersburg, Russia.
The Swiss pulled off a great comeback against reigning world champion France before advancing in a penalty shootout. Elsewhere, Spain almost blew a fantastic performance against Croatia before righting the ship in extra time.
On paper, this seems like a one-sided matchup, although Switzerland has been impressive in its last two outings. Let’s break down which side bettors should be on.
Switzerland's Luck Might Run Out in Quarterfinals
The Swiss needed to do some soul searching after their first two Euro 2020 games. They started with a 1-1 draw against Wales, which should have been a win except for conceding a late equalizer, and then suffered a 3-0 loss to Italy, conceding 2.89 expected goals in the process.
Well, the veteran squad responded in style. Switzerland took down Turkey, 3-1, to finish third in Group A and then delivered a stunning comeback against France to advance to the quarterfinals.
While scoring two late goals to tie France in regular time was impressive, the French did all they could to help Switzerland. Defensively, France was uncharacteristically unorganized, being beaten right down the middle of the field for the stoppage-time equalizer.
It was encouraging, though, unlike the result against Italy. Manager Roberto Mancini’s team conceded just 0.23 xG to the Swiss and thoroughly dominated.
It’s very reasonable to expect Spain to have more of the ball against Switzerland than Italy did, although the Swiss defense just struggled defensively against another team that likes to have a lot of possession.
The Spanish backline is vulnerable, but I’m still skeptical of the Swiss attack. Since scoring in its opener against Wales, Breel Embolo has sputtered his way along in this tournament. Switzerland is fortunate Haris Seferović found form out of nowhere against Turkey, now scoring three times in his last two games.
Spanish Attack Finally Scoring Goals
We knew coming into the tournament that chance creation was not going to be an issue for Spain and it hasn’t. The country has registered xG totals of 2.47 vs. Sweden; 3.36 vs. Poland; 3.56 vs. Slovakia; and 4.31 vs. Croatia (including extra time).
The difference in those last two performances is that Spain scored five goals in each after just one combined against Sweden and Poland.
Like France, the Spanish backline struggled mightily in the Round of 16. Among the giants at Euro 2020, Spain’s defense is the least stable. Manager Luis Enrique appears to have established the Manchester City pair of Aymeric Laporte and Eric Garcia as his preferred center-back duo, although neither played during this past season.
César Azpilicueta is strong at right back and scored against Croatia, against whom captain Jordi Alba was surprisingly benched in favor of Jose Gaya.
There’s plenty of attacking talent, though. Álvaro Morata puts himself in better positions than 99.9% of strikers in world soccer, although finishing can be an issue. Pablo Sarabia, Gerard Moreno, Ferran Torres and Dani Olmo are attackers who have a more than reasonable case to start alongside Morata. Pedri and Koke are also creative types in midfield, and they’re given freedom by Sergio Busquets’ presence.
Spain keeps so much of the ball that its defensive issues aren’t as glaring. Meanwhile, France was happy to concede the ball late to Switzerland. I don’t see that being the case here. Assuming Spain continues its fine form in front of goal, it shouldn’t struggle too much to contain the Swiss.
Switzerland vs. Spain Pick
Early Wednesday, Spain was sitting at just -122 odds to go over 1.5 goals. That was a huge value, and it quickly went up to -130 that night and was still on the rise as of this publication.
In case you can’t tell by the first however many hundred words of this preview, Switzerland’s defense is shaky and Spain is on fire. My best play is to parlay that Spanish total with their moneyline, which gets you down to -102 odds at DraftKings. If Spain wins, it's unlikely to be a 1-0 scoreline.
The Spanish are in great form and facing a Swiss team that has faltered defensively against the two top teams they've faced. I don’t see any reason to expect anything different here, although I don’t see another late comeback being gifted to Switzerland this time around.
Pick: Parlay — Spain ML & Spain Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-102)
