On Tuesday morning, a 20-something-year-old teacher from New York said he was instructing elementary school kids how to play volleyball, trying to distract himself from his bet that could return $1 million.
“I was checking my phone every once in a while, but I wasn’t watching it,” he told the Action Network.
The bet of the World Cup — $90,818.19 on Morocco to advance to the quarterfinals, which returned over $1 million — didn’t come from a millionaire. It came from a young teacher who says he has built up his bankroll by hitting big parlays.
A $1 MILLION WINNER THANKS TO MOROCCO 🤑
(via @PropSwap | @FDSportsbook) pic.twitter.com/LoS6Mrho9h
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) December 6, 2022
He says it was the biggest bet of his life. What did he know about Morocco's national team?
“Nothing,” he said. “I don’t know one player’s name.”
What was his strategy, then? Nothing but a simple hunch, the bettor claimed. He said his inclination was that Morocco was undervalued because no one was wagering on them.
"I'm not going to lie and say I knew what I was doing," he said. "At the end of the day it was a bet that just got lucky.
"I'm a regular degenerate dude."
Morocco proceeded to draw Croatia, beat Belgium, then beat Canada, advancing past the group stage and into the knockout rounds.
Inexplicably, they did so by putting up the second-fewest xG out of any team besides Qatar, which were woefully under-qualified for the tournament, only being able to suit up because they're hosts.
In fact, Morocco put up fewer expected goals (xG) during the group stage and their knockout win over Spain (1.70) than Romelu Lukaku did for Belgium (1.98) during one half against Croatia.
Lukaku didn't even net a goal off of his nearly two goal projection. Morocco put in a total of four goals off of their 1.70 goal expectation.
Still, wins are wins, and after setting a date against Spain, the bettor's Morocco ticket suddenly ballooned in value.
He had two options. Cash it out on the FanDuel app, or put down six figures on Spain to advance as a hedge.
At a market-best price of -380 on Spain to advance vs. Morocco, the bettor could have wagered about $863,500 as a hedge to guarantee a profit of roughly $136,000 — no matter the result of the match.
The cashout offer on the FanDuel app? A much better proposition. $225,000, he said.
The bettor said his original plan had been to hedge out of the ticket after the group stage for a "nice profit." But, $225,000 wasn't initially enough for him.
That's despite the fact that he'd be receiving about $45K more for a cashout than he would have by simply betting on Morocco at 2-to-1 to advance to the Round of 16 before the start of the tournament.
Regardless, that cashout offer disappeared soon afterward, he said.
The day before Morocco vs. Spain — baffled that the cashout was gone from his app — he says went back and forth with someone at the sportsbook.
“I was wondering why I didn’t have a cashout option,” he said. “Did they know that Spain was definitely going to win?”
As he was exploring his options, he reached out to the guys at PropSwap — where he had peddled some of his tickets before — to ask what the current value was. The answer? $218,000.
Representatives at PropSwap confirmed to the Action Network that this particular bettor has come to them before with large parlays he was looking to hedge.
The bettor never ended up posting his potential $1 million ticket on the secondary market and went into the game unhedged.
And he didn't even watch the proceedings.
But, conveniently, his class ended and he had a break — just as Spain and Morocco were due to head to penalty kicks, he said. The teacher proceeded to throw down, he said, $150,000 on Spain to advance at -150 as a live hedge. The bettor says he doesn't have any backers or investors — that the $90K initial wager and $150K hedge are all a part of his betting bankroll.
If Spain prevailed in penalties, the bettor would have walked away with a roughly $10,000 profit for his troubles, a consolatory 11% return on investment compared to what could have been.
If Morocco pulled off the improbable, his new profit would be about $850,000.
After Morocco won on penalty kicks — effectively, a coin flip — there was no scream. He didn’t want anyone to ask any questions.
“It was simply a holy s—, I won,” he said. “I checked my account 20 times. Once my winnings were deposited, I withdrew everything.”
Then, he went back to teaching bumps and spikes to third graders.
