Euro 2024 continues today on Thursday, June 20 with three fixtures.
Like World Cup 2022, I'll have projections for every game, along with analysis and any potential bets that result from showing projection value. Today, I have bets on two games.
My projections simulate each game 250,000 times and are powered by my colleague BJ Cunningham's offensive and defensive power ratings for each team. Using his power ratings, I use something called diagonal-inflated bivariate poisson to simulate the scoring distribution for each game.
Let’s dive into my Euro 2024 match projections for Thursday's Spain vs Italy game and more.
Thursday Euro 2024 Match Projections
Slovenia vs Serbia, 9 a.m. ET
I have Serbia favored to win 51.1% of the time. However, they have only generated 1.36 xG per game during this cycle against a schedule that is, on average, easier than Slovenia.
As a result, I'm showing thin value on both Slovenia and the under, so let's combine them and target some exact scores.
Picks: 02.u Slovenia 1-0 (+1300 via FanDuel), .1u Slovenia 2-0 (+2800 via FanDuel)
Denmark vs England, 12 p.m. ET
- England are favored to win 58.7% of the time
- The Three Lions are by far the toughest opponent Denmark has faced this cycle
- With schedule adjustments, and talent adjustments both favoring England, plus thin value on the under, let's target some more exact scores
- I'll take England winning 1-0 at +500 and England winning 2-0 at +650 both for 0.4 units available at FanDuel or Bet365
I have England favored to win 58.7% of the time, and the Three Lions are by far the toughest opponent Denmark has faced in this cycle. With schedule adjustments and talent adjustments both favoring England and more thin value on the under, let's target some more exact score.
Picks: England 1-0 (+500 via FanDuel), England 2-0 (+650 via FanDuel)
Spain vs Italy, 3 p.m. ET
Spain winning is the most likely outcome at 36.1%, but all three outocmes are in the 30%-plus range. Italy actually over-performed against expectations in terms of xG against Albania.
Meanwhile, Spain won 3-0 despite losing the xG battle. A bit of recency bias and fortune could produce a bit of value on Italy.
