West Brom vs. Everton Odds
| West Brom Odds | +330 |
| Everton Odds | -118 |
| Draw | +265 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-106 / -118) |
| Day | Time | Thursday | 1 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds as of Wednesday evening via DraftKings. | |
Things could get pretty interesting in Premier League action Thursday when West Bromwich Albion welcomes Everton to The Hawthorns.
The Baggies, who are in dire straits and staring relegation right in the face, earned a 1-0 upset victory over Brighton & Hove Albion this past weekend. It was a massive — and much needed — win for the hosts, who are nine points adrift from safety.
On the other side, Everton secured its second consecutive triumph in a 1-0 shutout against fading Southampton. The Toffees have a realistic shot at a Champions League berth, sitting just two points behind fourth-place West Ham United in the table.
Both teams would desperately love to bag all three points in this midweek affair, so let's take a look at what could be in store.
West Brom
If Sam Allardyce is known for one thing, it's his penchant for saving clubs destined for relegation. Now, after almost three years away from the sideline, "Big Sam" has been tasked to pull off his latest miracle in West Midlands.
Allardyce has a helluva track record orchestrating the "great escape," which includes these minor miracles on his decorated resumé:
- Bolton — 2002-03
- Blackburn — 2008-09
- Sunderland — 2015-16
- Crystal Palace — 2016-07
The Baggies are hoping they started their quest for survival this past Saturday in what I would call a quite undeserving win. Brighton, which missed two penalty kicks and had a goal disallowed in defeat, finished with a 2.6-0.5 xG advantage and still found a way to lose.
Statistically, West Brom is the worst team when it comes to the advanced metrics. The Baggies have a paltry 18.1 expected goals and ghastly 45.4 expected goals against, resulting in a eye-popping -27.3 xGDiff and -1.05 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Yes, West Brom is last in all four major categories. And how bad are Allardyce's men when it comes to xGDiff? Crystal Palace is the next closest, sitting far away with its -17.5 xGDiff in 13th place on the standings. Talk about a gap.
Everton
The Toffees might be playing their best soccer at the moment, having secured consecutive shutout wins over aforementioned Southampton and Liverpool two weeks back. Now, they get a chance to humble a foe coming off perhaps the biggest win of their campaign.
Another bonus in Everton's corner is the favorable set of opponents it faces in the coming weeks. After next week's showdown with Chelsea, the Toffees have three prime-win opportunities in home matches with Burnley and Crystal Palace before a road affair at Brighton.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin has thrust himself into the thick of the Golden Boot race, racking up 13 goals. He's been getting a ton of support from Richarlison (five goals/four assists) as of late, including the winner against Southampton.
When comparing numbers with West Brom, Everton has a distinct edge across the board. However, the figures are nothing to write home about. The Toffees boast 30.4 xG and a lackluster 33.5 xGA, resulting in a -3.1 xGDiff and -0.12 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Interestingly enough, Everton has the weakest overall stats in the top half of the table, yet finds itself in the thick of the European soccer hunt.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Yes, West Brom is unbeaten in its last three fixtures, but I just don't see it pulling off a result similar as the Brighton affair. Everton is simply more talented and has looked strong in its back-to-back triumphs.
For that reason, I am backing the Toffees on the moneyline to leave The Hawthorns on a three-game winning streak. They're also unbeaten in 11 of their last 12 meetings with the Baggies across all competitions, which is something you simply can't look past.
Throw in the fact Everton has been stellar on the road, winning five of their last six games away from Goodison Park, and you have to like the visitor's chances.
I will also play Calvert-Lewin to score anytime as well. He lit the Baggies up for those three goals in 5-2 win back in September, so I will take a shot on him terrorizing West Ham at least once in this latest match.
Picks: Everton ML (-114) | Dominic Calvert-Lewin To Score Anytime — Yes (+112)
