Tottenham vs Arsenal Odds
| Tottenham Odds | +195 |
| Arsenal Odds | +135 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -182 / +135 |
The international break is over, the Premier League is back and the fiercest rivalry in England returns Sunday. That, of course, is the North London derby.
The Tottenham/Manchester City fixture at the end of last season is the latest example to support this claim. Entering their penultimate game of a promising first year under Ange Postecoglou, Spurs needed a win to keep their chances of Champions League qualification alive heading into the last day. Unfortunately, their opponents also needed three points, as a victory would keep them ahead of Arsenal in the title race.
A natural quandary for the white side of North London emerged. Most Spurs fans wanted to lose the match, even if it cost them a CL spot, because they didn't want to deal with their neighbors winning the league. That incensed Postecoglou before, during and after the game, who questioned the mentality of his own fans and bemoaned their lack of support in a crucial fixture. Meanwhile, Gooners everywhere got a taste of life as Spurs fans — if only for two hours — as the Lilywhites bottled it yet again. Mikel Arteta summed up Arsenal fans' thoughts well.
The hatred between fanbases and their preference to see their rival fail than their own club succeed make this a special occasion. How will the 196th edition of this rivalry play out? Read on for my Tottenham vs Arsenal prediction.
Tottenham
It's safe to say, results-wise, this hasn't been the start to the season Postecoglou and company envisaged. After investing around €150 million into the squad over the summer, sights around Hotspur Way were firmly set on the top four. However, Spurs have only picked up four points through their first three fixtures and weren't able to capitalize on lengthy spells of dominance against Leicester and Newcastle. It's a worrying trend that has carried over from the second half of last year.
On a more positive note, both Dominic Solanke and Micky van de Ven will be available for this match, both of whom are integral parts of Postecoglou's tactical setup. Van de Ven's pace is crucial for the recovery defending that comes with Tottenham's high line, and no one else in the squad has Solanke's combination of physicality and box movement. Yves Bissouma might pass the final fitness tests as well, which would be a further boost, and it would leave Richarlison as the only notable absence.
Spurs are very much still a front-footed team, and it seems they have made strides in the set piece department as well. However, frailties in defensive transitions and lack of a consistent wide threat in settled attacking situations do lower their ceiling.
Arsenal
The story of this Arsenal side right now is player availability. Heading into their final match before the international break, the Gunners had two wins from two and were only going to be missing Mikel Merino and Takehiro Tomiyasu over a longer time frame. Then Declan Rice received one of the most egregious red cards ever against Brighton, costing Arsenal three points and ruling him out for the next league fixture, a.k.a. this one.
Things didn't get any better during the two week "break," with Martin Odegaard and Riccardo Calafiori picking up unfortunate, minor injuries. They shouldn't be out for long, but with the NLD this weekend and a trip to the Etihad next Sunday (as well as a CL fixture on Thursday), the timing is just atrocious.
In other words, it's looking likely Arteta won't have any of his first-choice midfielders available Sunday. Jorginho and Thomas Partey should both start, with one of Kai Havertz, Leandro Trossard or Ethan Nwaneri replacing the skipper if he's out. At least the club got a deadline loan deal done for Raheem Sterling, which gives the Arsenal boss more flexibility with how he uses his forwards.
Tottenham vs Arsenal
Prediction
Knowing Rice would be suspended, I remember checking the prices for this fixture after Arsenal drew with Brighton, and the Gunners' moneyline was hovering around even money (and had already dropped). At time of writing, they've fallen to +130 in light of the Odegaard injury news, which is almost laughable because there's no way sportsbooks value the Norwegian at 30 cents. At best, he's Arsenal's fourth-best player and their attack won't function any differently as long as Bukayo Saka is out there.
On top of that, when this fixture was played four-and-a-half months ago, Arsenal were content with ceding territory and using Saka and Kai Havertz to launch counterattacks. It's unlikely the Gunners score twice from set pieces again, and having Jorginho playing instead of Rice will hurt the midfield's athleticism and weaken the press, but Arteta should recognize that and gameplan around it. Spurs are still largely ineffective when faced with a low block, as shown in that 3-2 Arsenal win, so that's something they'll have to overcome here.
Even accounting for the absences, at +135 I'll happily back Saka to do more with his 1v1s in attacking transitions than all of Spurs' forwards produce against the best defensive team in the league sitting deep in a compact shape.
