Tottenham vs Man City Odds
| Tottenham Odds | +333 |
| Man City Odds | -143 |
| Draw | +333 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -211 / +160 |
Man City are the betting favorite to win the FA Cup for the second consecutive season, but the second match of their campaign to repeat is one of the toughest draws, at Tottenham. Spurs are finally getting healthy in defense and their performances should trend upward in the coming weeks with the entire first choice backline available.
There are five matchups of Premier League versus Premier League in the fourth round of the FA Cup this weekend, none higher than this 'big six' matchup at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Friday. These two sides played once in the league already, a thrilling 3-3 draw that saw Tottenham score late to steal a point at the Etihad in December despite a very shorthanded unit overall.
Read on for my Tottenham vs Man City prediction.
Tottenham
It's the second consecutive match where Spurs will have both of their first choice defenders. Part of Spurs' deficiencies in defense are structural because of how open they play and how much they press the ball under new manager Ange Postecoglou, but those problems became more extreme once both Cristian Romero and Mickey van de Ven picked up injuries. Van de Ven injured his hamstring in a Monday match against Chelsea on Nov. 6. Romero also picked up a red card suspension and then had an injury that caused him to miss most of December.
Postecoglou didn't really favor backup Eric Dier, so he often played a center back pairing of Emerson Royal and Ben Davies, neither of which are center backs by natural position. Royal had primarily played right back, and Davies was either a left back or a left center back in a back three when playing under Antonio Conte or for Wales. From Nov. 4 through the end of the year, Spurs failed to keep a single opponent under 1.3 expected goals.
They had one high quality defensive showing against Nottingham Forest for the majority of the match, but even then picked up a red card and then barely held on for a clean sheet. The shot stopping of Guglielmo Vicario kept the defense afloat with his PL best shot-stopping, but Tottenham's defense was consistently exposed by mid-table clubs like Everton, Wolves and Bournemouth.
Tottenham held Manchester United to 0.8 expected goals in their 2-2 draw, the lowest any team had against them since Oct. 27 against Crystal Palace. It's not a coincidence that it was the first match Romero and van de Ven played together. The midfield is still shorthanded without Yves Bissouma and Pape Matar Sarr, but Spurs also will be boosted by the return of James Maddison in midfield.
We haven't seen a Maddison, Timo Werner, Richarlison and Dejan Kulusevski front four all year, but Werner had three shot creating actions, two goal creating actions an assist and 10 box touches last week against United. He can replace the Son role in ball progression and Richarlison is producing 0.63 xG per 90 with quality shot numbers.
The market is undervaluing Tottenham right now because of their time spent shorthanded.
Man City
Ederson did recover from his injury suffered against Newcastle, but I wouldn't expect him to start in goal for Manchester City in this match. He's just been an average shot-stopper, but his is an upgrade over cup keeper Stefan Ortega. Spurs aren't in Europe, so they'll still play Vicario. That gives a considerable goalkeeper advantage to Tottenham overall.
Manchester City showed in their comeback win against Newcastle just how valuable Kevin De Bruyne is, but the defensive flaws on the break still exist. The absence of John Stones has been the primary cause of City's decline in defensive metrics year over year. The defense remains elite overall, but the press isn't as suffocating and teams are able to hit them in direct transition more.
Spurs have the personnel well designed to do that, given the passing quality of Maddison and Rodrigo Bentancur in the midfield. Tottenham won't have much midfield ball winning, but City will once again be without Erling Haaland as he recovers from his injury.
It may not seem like a huge difference, but City's possession rate is down a full percent. Their xGA per match in the league is up from 0.79 last year to 0.95 this season. Combine that with just average goalkeeper play and the absence of Haaland and you get a vulnerable road favorite here.
Tottenham vs Man City
Prediction
We've seen Tottenham expose weaknesses in City's transition defense already this year and that's one of the top strengths Werner and Maddison can offer in their first game playing together.
Cups tend to be much higher variance than normal league matches and as a result, I'm chasing the high end outcome on Tottenham. Son and Kane aren't there to torture City in this match, but the market is undervaluing Spurs' improved health situation on Friday.
